29 October 2010

Snowfall ink - stockpile or sell

A couple of comentators asked why I am stockpiling Snowfall ink.

Basically I am a contrarian investor.  If the hordes (even the alliance ones) say panic sell, I buy.  If players are panic buying, I sell.

I said that I am willing to sit on snowfall inks, up to a guild bank tab before cata, for selling later.  Lets actually examine whether my gut feeling stacks up.

What I know
  • Snowfall historically sold between 7 - 12 gold on our server, currently listed at 6 gold, and falling
  • Ink of the sea historically sold between 2-3g on our server, and after the patch, became unavailable, then stuck at 11g, now is down to 6g
  • Glyphs are steadily selling
  • Herbs are now available for sale, with falling prices. 11g (basic) - 18g ('advanced')
  • Recipees that use snowfall ink.
  • Levelling Inscription early using Cata herbs will cost a fortune.
  • Recipees making blue quality items will provide multiple skill ups.
  • Glyphs are still selling well enough.
Recipees (taken from wow.crafterstome.com): 

What I think
  • This blog and directly in game influenced the fall in ink of the sea prices (I bought a lot at 5g), pushing it down from 11g.  Either that or it was natural anyway given the prices and availability of herbs.
  • Many herbs will continue to be milled for glyphs, creating a surplus of snowfall inks
  • Scribes will be able to use runescrolls to level the first few points of Cata level inscription
  • Many levelling worgen/goblins will want to make the above.  I assume this will be true of the above.
  • Darkmoon cards will still be the 'easiest' of the trinkets to obtain for the 80-84 bracket.
Based on the above, I am not willing to pay much for snowfall inks, but do see a market for them post cataclysm.  I have the banks space, therefore will stockpile these while cheap.

This is speculation.  I am betting my gold and bank space.  Use your own judgement for your server, gold and bank spaces.

    2 comments:

    1. Good analysis there; I hadn't considered the skillups angle. I don't know how important that will be, I suspect the serious scribes are awash in snowfalls -- but there will be others. Actually, a guildmate of my scribe complained about low snowfall results from milling, and I was able to trade some for inks of the sea... so maybe there will be more of a market than I thought.

      I won't buy it, but I won't dump what I have (nearly half a bank tab).

      ReplyDelete
    2. I agree with this post and also with Indy that buying up is too high risk, but holding on to what you have for personal use or later AH dumping is the most reasonable.

      Also Insane In The Membrane achievement is being nerfed ( they are removing the Shen'Dralar faction). I am guessing more people will start to chase this achievement and one of the needed things are Darkmoon decks for the Darkmoon Faire faction reputation.

      ReplyDelete

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