Darkmoon depreciation

Yet another post in a series about darkmoon trinkets.

I like far too much the sight of my own walls of text.  The last post was too ... long? dry? Must write shorter.

All 359 gear prices are heading south, trinkets included.  I have some hope for volcano trinkets (apparently still BIS for many caster DPS specs), and Tsunami for healers has surprisingly strong prices.  The tanking trinket (Earthquake) is no-ones friend even before 4.2 and will only get worse.  Finally Hurricane (in either strength or agility) is ordinary.

As a rule this month's trinket peak price is less than last months.  This month's bottom price is less than last month's bottom price.  I try to sell out of trinkets during the week before the next faire.  I would rather get less and sell out than be stuck with trinkets left over.  I would love to present you with proof, but could not find trinket prices over several months.

PS.  I'm having a .. less than perfect experience setting up scheduled posts.  Anyone else currently using blogger scheduled posts?  Are you having success, or do they just end back up as 'draft' posts?

Timing the trinket market

This is the 4th post in a series on Darkmoon Trinkets.
All markets have price variations.  Raid nights need flasks and potions before the raid starts, and gems and enchants after the raid finishes; creating periods of peak demand and higher prices.  Casual farmers and crafters work on nights that are not raid nights, creating peak supply and lower prices.

As I explored with yesterday's post, for darkmoon trinkets, the faire dominates the pricing cycle.  It's not enough to buy mats and expect to sell trinkets at profit. Timing the trinket market is more important than time in the market.


The basic process again is :

• Gather herbs and volatile life
• Mill herbs -> Inks (Blackfallow & Inferno)
• Combine Inferno inks and Volatile life to create an individual card (Ace to Eight of one of the 4 standard card suites)
• Combine 8 different cards of the same suite to create a deck. 
• Turn the deck into a trinket during the Darkmoon Faire.

You can use the AH at any point (or even multiple points) in this cycle.  I only get mats from other farmers (sometimes direct ; usually off the AH).  Sometimes I mill herbs, other times I buy or even sell Inks.  I make, buy and sell cards.  I make, buy and sell decks.  I create trinkets during the faire and sell them later.

Each 'line' in the above process has it's peaks and troughs : related to each other but lagging.  Eg.  Peak ink prices occur during the time that Trinkets go from most expensive to cheapest.

Raw Mats	Alliance Mean	Min (Alliance Cael)	Max (Alliance Cael)
Volatile Life	9.21	7.5	13.33
Whiptail	2.19	1.7	2.31
Inferno Ink	40.7	23	52.5
Blackfallow Ink	11.9	4.28	7
Milling value
Inferno Gold	2.04	1.15	2.63
Blackfallow Gold	3.57	1.28	2.1
Total Gold	5.61	2.43	4.73
Value increase	256%	143%	205%
Trinkets
Volcano	10,742	6,300	15,000
Tsunami	15,153	10,986	20,000
Earthquake	5,125	3,531	15,000
Hurricane	9,680	6,318	15,250
Average	10,175	6,784	16,313
Cost - no waste	5,471	3,644	7,404
	186%	186%	220%
Cost 10% waste	6,018	4,009	8,144
	169%	169%	200%
Cost 50% waste	8,206	5,467	11,105
	124%	124%	147%

Pricing was established @30 June 2011, taken from theunderminejournal.com. The Alliance mean is the undermine journals 'US Alliance Mean pricing', and the minimum and maximum are taken from eyeballing the 14 day rolling window for Alliance Caelestrasz.  I make no warranties that trinkets were sold at any price, let alone 15,000 for the earthquake, but these are the listed prices my AH - and without any manipulation on my behalf.

First of all I am listing pricing for both the basic mats (Volatile life and Whiptail as a representative herb); as well as the pricing for Inferno & Blackfallow inks.

For my own reference, I have listed the notional value of milling a single whiptail, and it's markup; assuming you sold it as ink.

At the bottom I have included trinket prices - both individual and average; followed by costs and markups (from volatile life and ink prices) based on 3 scenarios : No waste; 10% allowance for wasted cards, and 50% allowance for wasted cards.


The first thing to note, is that if you look at only average pricing; OR only minimal pricing; OR only maximum prices; even allowing for 50% you can make a profit.

The next thing to note is that if you buy all your mats at the 'top' of the cycle (7400g no waste), and sell your trinkets at the bottom of the cycle (6800), then you will make a loss.  No brainer huh?  But look at the implications.

(Please note : the profit's mentioned below are theoretical only.  I doubt even the most rabid card maker would expect them on a regular basis.  However, it is still valid for illustration purposes).

Take the 10% allowance for waste cycle in 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1

• Buy inks and volatile life at the bottom of the market for 1 trinket : 4000g.  
• Craft cards
• Sell completed trinket at the top of the market : 16,300 g
• Profit 12,300g

 Scenario 2

• Buy inks and volatile life at the bottom of the market for 1 trinket : 4,000g
• Sell inks and volatile life at the top of the market for 1 trinket : 8,100g
• Buy completed trinket at the bottom of the market : 6,800g
• Sell Completed Trinket at the top of the market 16,300g
• Profit = 4100g + 9500g = 13,600g

By hanging onto your cards for the entire cycle, selling at the top of the cycle; you loose 1,600g per card : or 10%.  If you miss the (hard to pick)

I have also skipped all the 'fun' that can be had by selling individual cards and decks. Any trinket maker is already playing with risk, at points in every cycle having crafted goods worth less than unprocessed mats.

In scenario 2, you do not need to be a scribe; Making greater just by buying low and selling high.

Monthly trinket time

This post is the third in a series on crafting Darkmoon Trinkets. 

Tailoring has a weekly cooldown, Blacksmiths and Leatherworkers need chaos orb's, Alchemy transmutes have a daily cooldown.  Scribes have the faire.

You can gather your mats, do your crafting, buy and sell cards and even finished decks of the AH, and do this any time.  A finished deck gives you a quest that can only be turned in during one week per month, during the darkmoon faire.  It is this handing in this quest that creates your trinket (and for hurricane - determine if you will have a strength or agility trinket).   For those players who don't attend the faire, its location moves between horde, allilance and neutral venues, and is listed in the in-game calendar.  I live on a PVE server, and it's easy enough to avoid the opposite faction's guards, but it may be worth careful timing or organising a group when the faire is near your opposite faction's cities.

There is a definite timeline to trinket crafting

• Faire week 
• crafters are trying to complete the last of their decks and turning in completed trinkets.  
• There are generally no decks on the AH, and 
• cheap trinkets start to flood the AH.  
• Lots of card trading occurs this week.
• Week after faire 
• Crafters are trying to offload their trinkets and some are desperately trying to cash in.  
• Noone is bothering to do much new card creation.  
• Herb, Inferno ink and volatile life start to drop and I start looking for bargains.
• Second week after faire : 
• Desparados have offloaded their trinkets, and what trinkets are left rise in prices.  
• Some crafting occurs, and Decks start to appear.  
• People in trade offer (currently useless) decks for usable trinkets.  
• There are still cheap mats, but will likely disappear toward the end of the week.
• Third week after faire, week before next one.  
• Those that have priced their trinkets properly will sell out for the highest prices in this week.  Priced too high and you will be left with too many trinkets.  Priced too low and you will sell out before this.  
• Some trinkets will be sold out.  
• You may also be able to pick up cheap finished decks.  
• Card trading starts.

 Sometimes there is a 5 week month, meaning more mats on the AH, but more trinkets sold out.

Darkmoon trinket creation randomness.

This post is part 2 of a series.  In my last post, I talked about how trinket making had 90% profits, with some large caveats.


This post is looking at the randomness of how many cards it takes to make a trinket.  The preious post assumed cards would come in order and you would be left with no wasted cards.  Umm, that was optomistic.  I would allow for 4%-8% wasted cards.


The basic process again is :

• Gather herbs and volatile life
• Mill herbs -> Inks (Blackfallow & Inferno)
• Combine Inferno inks and Volatile life to create an individual card (Ace to Eight of one of the 4 standard card suites)
• Combine 8 different cards of the same suite to create a deck. 
• Turn the deck into a trinket during the Darkmoon Faire.

One idea bandied about is that you need to craft 32 cards on average to make your first trinket; assuming you don't buy individual cards from the AH.  I think the number is closer to 50, based on this google docs simulator.  Even after making 10,000 cards, my simluator suggests that I will have about 1150 trinkets and about 800 (8%) unused cards.  Some readers may make 1150 trinkets.  I doubt I will.

The individual cards can be bought and sold on the AH.  Conventional wisdom says that if you have a surplus of one card (eg 8 of the winds), but need a different card (say 3 of the winds), you will sell your surplus card on the AH, and try to purchase the card you need.

• In my 50 card scenario, trading 6 cards allows me to create another 3 trinkets (using 24 cards); up from 1 trinket using 8 cards.
• In my 10,000 card scenario, trading 30 cards allows me to make 30 more trinkets, using up 240 of the 800 surplus cards.
• However, you have also potentially allowed your competitors to do the same, meaning increased competition for completed trinket sales.

If I only have one (or possibly two depending on my mood) extra card, I will sit on it.

I will sell surplus cards where :

• I have a few extra cards, and they are listed above 1/8 of the completed trinket sale price; or
• I have a lot of extra cards.

I will purchase cards where :

• I need them to complete a deck, and they are at or below market prices
• I need a lot of one card to complete multiple decks.
• The are significantly below completed trinket price and I only have a few of that card

To the peanut gallery, for this post, I am specifically looking for debate on:

• your observations on the randomness of cards, and/or
• selling/purchasing surplus/shortfall cards.

In answer to yesterday's comment : Cold has been trying to get out of darkmoon trinkets, and has some cards he can not shift.  According to my simulation, there will always be cards that are surplus to a servers requirements.  If you want out, liquidate, but try both faction's AH.


Postscript in response to Zamboni 
(It's a bother to put tables in comments, so I have added a postscript.).
Random chance is enough to explain the shortage in cards.  Statistics are funny like that.

You say you have made hundreds of trinkets, lets call it 400, and see what my simlator suggests.
I ran it about 20 times making 3660 cards ~ 1/2 gave more than 400, ~ 1/2 than 400 and one gave exactly 400.

NumDecks	110								Total
NumCards	130	131	110	112	110	147	114	121	975
Suite 1	A	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
NumDecks	95
NumCards	102	95	129	125	99	123	104	116	893
Suite 2	A	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
NumDecks	96
NumCards	117	120	96	122	128	105	99	100	887
Suite 3	A	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
NumDecks	99
NumCards	107	99	140	116	119	102	106	116	905
Suite 4	A	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
									3660
Total decks	400
Consumed cards	3200
Surplus cards	460

As you can see, I am short (by a lot) fo the following cards
Suite 1 : 3, 4 & 5
Suite 2 : 2 & 5
Suite 3 : 3 & 7
Suite 4 : 2 & 6.

The most of any given card was 147 (Suite 1 card 6).  The fewest of any given card was 95 (Suite 2 card 2). 

The most of any deck was Suite 1 with 110 decks, and the fewest was suite 2 with 95 decks.

To show a bias in the RNG over 400 decks you need to show a difference significantly more than 52 cards.  Until then, it's just random noise.

Creating Darkmoon Cards Part 1 of X

Darkmoon card trinket sellers generally come in one of two groups:

• Glyph makers selling cards as a use for surplus inferno inks, and
• Dedicated card sellers, producing surplus blackfallow inks.

I am firmly in the first group.  There will be other players out there that love darkmoon card sales.  However as I read a lot of blogs, and can't point to a recent set of posts, I will write this up.

First, I create inferno inks out of my glyph making process.  When I originally wrote that I was posting glyphs in the evening with a deep undercut method on a single faction's AH.  Today, I am playing less, and posting glyphs in the morning on two factions AH.

This post is covering the very basics of making Cataclysm darkmoon trinkets.  Future posts will be covering more details. (Peanut gallery - you will be invited to argue about optimising costs & sale prices in later posts).

While card creation can be profitable, it does take an ability to run a large stockpile.

All prices below are taken from theunderminejournal.com - average mean price of both horde and alliance servers at 30 June 2011.

An individual card takes 10 inferno inks @ 38g + 30 Volatile life @ 9g (disregarding 1 Parchment @55s)  = 650g.
Each Cataclysm deck takes 8 cards to make @ 650g = 5440g.

There are 32 possible cards - Ace to Eight:

• Of Stones.  This makes a tanking trinket - seems to be generally unloved, and mean price 5090g
• Of Waves.  This makes a healing trinket - apparently Best In Slot for Holy priests (even in 4.2) and OK for other healers, mean price 14,890g
• Of Embers.  This makes a caster DPS trinket - apparently Best in Slot for many casters (even in 4.2), mean price 10,720g
• Of the Winds.  This makes either a Strength DPS trinket or an Agility DPS trinket.  Mean prices about the same at 9,226g

This means that the mean price of all Cata darkmoon trinkets is 9990g or about 90% profit on top of costs

However, there are other issues with these cards that I will explore in later posts.

• You don't get to chose which card you will make.  You might have 50 individual cards yet still not be able to make a trinket.
• You can only make them 1 week every month
• They have huge price variations (sometimes it's better to sell mats).
• Like other 359 epics, they will suffer depreciation.

Postscript : In response to a comment below, I have added this image (can't add an image in a comment).  This is a snapshot from my server's Allaince AH taken today for the volcano trinket.  In all the pricing above I used the average of 'US Alliance Mean' and 'US Horde Mean' from two days ago.