Bob wants a MoP stockpile

Bob (not his real name) had some questions about making gold with an eye to Mists of Pandaria, and managed to track me down while not playing WoW


I have not prettied up the spelling.  I find it hard enough to spell properly when writing a post, and it's even harder to do when typing instead of talking.

Please add your own advice for Bob as a comment.


Bob: Hi foo.
Bob: umm I'm looking to jump into auction house stuff with release of MoP
Bob: and I have read quite a bit of your blog and others
Foo: Cool.  :)
Bob: and have no idea where to start
Foo: Thats a start :)
Bob: blacksmithing
Bob: and enchanting
Bob: are the 2 main proffessions i have
Foo: Ok.  First of all - do you have 525 in those professions yet?
Bob: yes
Foo: Ok.  Do you have either TSM or auctioneer installed?
Bob: i have 525 mining and bs on 1 character and 525 enchanting and herbalism on another
Bob: auctioneer
Foo: Ok. First thing you need to learn is how to disenchant for a profit using auctioneer; and probably a spreadsheet.
Bob: okay
Foo: How much gold do you have at the moment?
Bob: 30k between all characters
Foo: Same server?  30K is a start.
Bob: umm not same server atm but is going to be because i switched and want to switch back
Foo: Regardless; its something to work with.
Bob: i like farming and have farmed up about 800 elementium ore as well in the last few days
Bob: but there is bugger all profit in elementium
Bob: hardened elementium yes but it sells very slow
Foo: Ok.  Sell it slow then.  Set up an alt  next to an AH.  Give it your elementium bars to sell - probably on a 48 hour auction.  Log on to him every day or two - collect mail and repost.  If he runs low - then craft more.
Foo: Next thing to look at is belt buckles.  Do they sell at a profit?  (some spreadsheet skills would come in handy).
Foo: Some servers - yes; others no.
Bob: mine yes and they are extremely highly priced atm
Bob: with bugger all on AH
Foo: Ok.  You have a blacksmith.  Fix that problem for buyers :)
Bob: do i do little undercuts or buy out the 21 that are there and repost at even higher prices or do i do the moral thing and do decent undercuts to gain a lot of profit but not be greedy like hte 21 or w.e that re there atm?
Foo: I dont like buying for resale.  If they are below your costs and you know they will sell is one thing.  speculative buying to relist (especially when you only have 30k) is a good way to lose gold.
Bob: okay
Bob: so small undercuts will still get me like 4x the cost to make them
Bob: or large undercuts pick a price i think is fair?
Bob: say 2x cost
Foo: try both.  Start of with smaller undercuts and see how it sells
Foo: If they sell - then its fine
Foo: If they don't then go for a larger undercut.
Bob: small undercuts post for 12hours or longer?
Foo: The smallest impact is 12 hour small undercut.
Foo: If you get immediately undercut you know you need to go harder.
Bob: okay
Bob: if it ends up i need to do large undercuts but then someone just keeps undercutting me what do i do if i want to own that market?
Bob: i assume post for no profit for a large period of time
Bob: until they go away?
Foo: Read the TL;DR summary of my last post : http://foo-wow.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/glyph-thresholds.html
Foo: It applies here too.
Foo: There is no *need* to own a market.  You may make more gold with an unofficial cartel.
Bob: okay
Bob: i have other motives other than gold for owning markets
Foo: Ok.  Then (A) hope that they don't mine.  and (B) sell for 50s above what you would get for selling raw mats.
Bob: i want to make the server like me lol
Bob: so
Bob: cheap prices
Bob: im restarting guild
Bob: and want some fame
Bob: as that really nice warrior blacksmith
Foo: You can't buy 'like' from decent players.
Bob: with the lovely guild haha
Foo: You can buy like from leeches that can't dance.
Bob: hmm
Bob: okay
Bob: ture
Bob: true*
Foo: For those you want to attract; they will see your belt buckles and your ore.  You can even put your selling alt in your main guild (though there are reasons not to)
Bob: okay 1 more thing. with the enormous amount of elementium ore i seem to be addicted to farming
Foo: You really want a JC in that mix
Foo: JC's can consume guild banks of ore without problems.
Foo: (profitably)
Bob: should i wait and use it in release of MoP to make cash, or use it to help level those early 525-5xx of bs
Bob: for my guildmates and myself
Foo: If you can - do both.
Bob: okay
Bob: well i plan to get about 2k
Bob: ore
Foo: 2k is not huge amounts.
Bob: no
Foo: Its a lot but not huge.
Bob: well if i can
Bob: i will fill my 4 32 slot mining bags
Bob: and inventory
Foo: 6 months in - elementium ore will be in very much demand.
Foo: Guild banks.  See if you can buy a couple and fill them.
Foo: Max your alts on your server; get all personal bank slots and fill them.
Foo: Put some bags - at least netherweave - bigger if you want on those toons.
Foo: (by max I mean 10 toons - not 10 85's)
Bob: so the demand for elementium ore will be larger at the very start of mists or 3 months in or 6 motnhs?
Bob: months*
Bob: do you thinkk
Foo: I don't know the answer to that.  My educated guess is that Pyreite ore will be in demand for the first week; demand for ore might fall off as players unload their stock.  Once everyone else has run out - that is the time to sell.
Bob: so post little amounts of pyrium and elementium all the time
Bob: and then really go hard once i see a decrease in the amount of people in market
Foo: First there should be no need to go hard.  For a longer term stockpile (like ore for levelling toons), wait untill you see very little ore on the AH.
Foo: But you are essentiall waiting for 2 things.  Stockpiles to run out; and new levelling toons.  This means you probably should not sell to the initial wave of pandas.  But should start to sell when you see guildies/friends levelling new toons rather than quiesting on their mains.
Bob: yeah
Bob: from what i can tell your theory is the more markets you dip your toe in, the more profit there is to be made
Foo: Yes.  There are good arguments *not* to level a new toon to 85 (or 90).  But any max level toon should have 2 professions that can be used to make gold.
Bob: one of my closest friends is a JC willing to prospect all the ore in the world for free. (I provide him with all the repair/flask and food/gearing gold I can)
Bob: should i use this to get gems
Foo: But you should still try to understand one profession at a time.
Bob: are gems more profitable in general?
Foo: It depends on your market and prices of gold; but as a rule the 'ore shuffle' of the day is very profitable
Foo: web search  'elementium ore shuffle'; You can replace elementium with any ore of your choice.  for any expansion including Mop when it gets here.
Bob: the shuffle is when you get alchemists and stuff to change gems into other gems and you craft some items and disenchant etc?
Bob: it's why JC is like the most flexible gold making proffession
Foo: Ok.  Shuffle is traditionally : Miner mines and posts on AH;  JC buys ore and prospects.  Crafts rings etc with cheap gems.  Sells any random blue item that is produced.  Sends rest of green items to enchanter for Disenchanting.  Cuts Rare gems and puts on AH.
Foo: Enchanter can then use mats in scrolls for extra profit.
Foo: Alchemist can transmute gems too.
Bob: hmm
Bob: so with my enchanter and miner and my friend as JC we could do that
Bob: for quite substantial gold
Foo: Yes.  Especially at the start of MoP when gems and enchants are needed.  There was a 'gold rush' at the start of Cata.  There should be at the start of MoP too.
Foo: Do not be afraid to mine your way to Lvl 90.  The one time that a gatherer makes more than a crafter is in the first week of a new expansion.
Bob: apparently the absolute fastest yo ucan level from 85-90 is 8 hours thats with addons to ignore all quest text and to accept quests by running near the quest givers
Bob: so i think mining to level
Bob: woul take a long time
Bob: would*
Foo: 1 mining node gives the same XP as killing 4 mobs in the same area.
Foo: Would it take longer than the fastest possible way?  sure.
Foo: Would it make more gold for a gatherer in the first week than they would see in a month ore more of mining at the end of an expansion?  Yes to that too.
Bob: okay seriously final thing. bars or ore
Foo: Yes.  one of them.  maybe even both.
Bob: haha
Bob: okay
Foo: Ore is usefull for everyone; but takes up space.
Foo: Ore is also a shortcut for levelling miners.
Bob: yeah
Foo: But bars take up less space and are usefull for Blacksmiths and Engineers.
Foo: Do 50/50 : that way you can be 1/2 right.
Bob: hmm
Bob: i like 30/70
Bob: bars/ore
Bob: bars are too limited
Bob: when i think about it
Foo: Simply by stockpiling now and selling later - you will be in front.
Bob: okay
Bob: the current belt buckles completel useless next expansion?
Foo: Only useless if you want a new belt.
Foo: (thats a clever donkey way of saying yes)
Bob: yeah i picked up on that lol
Foo: By the way - these questions are meaningful - and not just for you.  I am changing names to protect the guilty - but will be posting this conversation as a blog post.
Bob: i assumed you might =)

Panda stockpile : Pets

This is a speculative post.

My priest has two professions - inscription and engineering.  In case you didn't guess, inscription got a workout.  I took Engineering to fill out my set of professions - plus Jeeves and a mailbox is usefull.  To date; I have not made much gold from this toon.

Mists of Pandaria has something for the engineer in my priest - the opportunity to sell pets. Pet battles will be 'fun'. I have read (can not remember where) that pets will be casual friendly.  You will be encouraged to look at your wins - and will be discouraged from looking at your losses.

My young child that sneaks onto my PC and take my ilvl 390+ tank Elwyn Forrest so he can duel lowbies - and lose; He also still watches pokemon.  He will love pet battles - and is part of the target audience.


I have not bothered much with engineering pets before but have found few articles worth looking at:

• WoW Insider : guide to making BOE pets
• Kaliope's Engineering : Choose type of Miscellaneous, and 'check' small pet.
• MMO Champion Pet battle companion list 

Over the next few months, I will be dedicating a stockpile to making pets and getting boe recipees.

Like all speculative posts, if everyone jumps onto the bandwagon, then we may end up with oversupply and a price crash.  For my personal opinion - I would be reluctant to call it an upcoming petmass just yet, but I do expect a huge demand for pets.

Bags for Mists of Pandaria?

For the record, I am almost certain you will make a profit on bags for Mists of Pandaria.  I am also certain I could make money from Engineering. If you are after a post to cater to your confirmation bias, then you may need to read another blog.

My biggest concern about bags is that we know bags will make gold, so the supply will outstrip the demand; and we won't make a copper coin. Of course I could be wrong, I have been before, and I will be again.  But lets look at what we know, and can demonstrate.

• Players will go from 10 toon slots/account/server to 11 toon slots in Mists
• Bags need cloth
• Cloth is traditionally farmed.
• Cataclysm came out about 7 Dec 2010.
• We have a price series of basic mats from WoW Midas.  Please remember that there are statistical limitations to how far we can push this data, but some trends are very clear.

Now, assuming - as some comments do - bags will be huge sellers in the first days, and make us all a gold cap very early on: some things should happen.

• Other tailors won't cotton on
• Players will leave their bag buying to the last moment.
• Players will want bags on their pandas as soon as they logon - all 11 bag slots.
• Players will be able to put bags on their pandas as soon as they logon.
• As the prepared tailors sell out, there will be a mad consumption of any bag making cloth.  i.e. the prices of cloth with be a reflection of the prices of bags

Similar things should have happened with Worgens/Goblins for Cataclysm

I have build a chart based on the last expansion's inflation numbers.  I have taken the Classic, BC and Northrend cloth prices, turned them into indexes, and compared them against the relevant indexes of prices since cataclysm's launch. 



In looking back; I am looking for items that beat the Northrend index.  Similarly, in the future, I will be looking for items that beat the Cataclysm index.

If bags were important then the cloth line will beat the underlying index.  There may be other reasons why cloth sells or doesn't sell, but bags will be a large factor - especially initially.

You should be able to click on the picture for the full series, and on this link for the source document.

What does this graph tell me?

• Northrend cloth (Frostweave) was the flavour of the month; leaving everything else behind.  And it continues to do so.  Wild swings certainly (and I would expect that given it's a single item on a single realm), but Frostweave cloth out performed everything I have looked at so far.  Assuming Frostweave was turned into bags, this may have been a good bet for Cataclysm.  I wouldn't know - I didnt sell them.  None of the blogs were recommending them either - everyone that suggested bags promoted Netherweave.  Do a google search.  Bragging rights go to the blog that recommended Frostweave bags as the bag to sell before Cataclysm - and to the reader that finds that blog.
• BC cloth (Netherweave) was and still is anaemic; badly underperformed vs the BC index.  There simply was insufficient demand for this cloth to consume the available supply.  I am sure that Netherweave bags sold at a profit, but no explosive demand can be seen.  Not at the start of Cataclysm, and not now.
• Classic cloth (Runecloth not really used for bags) outperformed Netherweave at every point.  It didn't perform as well as the Wrath index, let alone Frostweave.

All the blogs knew netherweave bags would strike it rich.  Only one blogger that I know of explicitly talked down Netherweave bags heading into Cataclysm.  I provided some moral support but merely followed his advice.  Looking at these numbers, this negativity was borne out by the chart above.  Sure you could make gold; but there were better places to do it.

When we look at Mists of Pandaria, there will be a new bag in the mix - Embersilk. 

Assuming that the transition to Mists of Pandaria (MOP)  will be similar to the transition to Cataclysm, if you thought bags were a good bet (and even if you are not sure), Embersilk is likely to be a very good purchase, and frostweave might be OK.  (Caveat emptor; I know my blog can influence prices; so I just bought a lot of embersilk cloth immediately before this post).

Doing this research was useful for me : I have hardened my resolve not to get involved in netherweave bags, I won't touch frostweave bags, but will look at embersilk in a more favourable light.

This post is part of a series on my stockpile for Mists of Pandaria, with thanks to Cold for his reminder that it is time to think about this topic via his April carnival topic.

Finally, I am flattered by the increase in readership (probably because I am writing something useful again).  However, if the blogging community suggest things to look at; we are probably right.  If anyone tells you about a sure fire bet; they could be wrong.  If everyone tells you there is a gold IWIN button - then they are almost certainly wrong.

Looking back at stockpiling for cataclysm

There were somethings I specifically stockpiled for Cataclysm.

• Snowfall ink
• Runecloth
• Glyphs & glyph making items

I also stockpilied a lot of other things too - mostly a general mix of raw and partially processed Northrend mats.  But today I am talking about stockpiling garbage.

I have the benefit of knowing what and why I wanted snowfall ink: I blogged specifically about it here and here.  I was buying snowfall inks @ 2.5g each.  With general northrend inflation being about 300%, that should put snowfall ink about 10g each.  However the current mean price is 40g, so the inflation on this was over 1000%.

Runecloth, I also stockpiled.  I don't have it written down, but my recollection was that I was buying runecloth for peanuts - I think about 5-10 silver each (marginally more than vendor).  It is now listed for about 1.1g each (though Alliance Caelstras is closer to 25 silver).  Again, about 1000% inflation.  There were players pushing for 'the insane' title, and grinding out huge quantities of runecloth from re-running dire maul dungeons.

I was pleased with my investments - mostly.  The runecloth sold well, but took too a little too much space for the return. However they were still a sound investment if you had empty bag spots.

Snowfall ink's were my best investment - the one I wish I put more away for, and wish I held onto those supplies for longer.

What was special about snowfall ink?  It was a byproduct of making glyphs - which were very much still in demand.  It was considered trash - useless and oversupplied.  But it was still needed for levelling - and especially needed for northrend research.

Based on my last post, I will be creating stockpiles to bring out in 6 months.  I will try not even to look at them in the meantime.  Spare guild banks, unused alts banks will be filled.

The basis for my long term stockpiles for MoP:  What is oversupplied as a byproduct of our current crafting processes?  Zephyrite, Ocean Sapphire, Volatile Earth, Hypnotic dust, and to a lesser degree, Inferno ink come to mind.  Those Cataclysm mats that, as a crafter, you would rather just not see and are vendoring.

These will still be needed later; and a power levelling JC doesn't care if they craft Zephyrite or Carnelians - their guild will tell them to use the cheapest available.  Also recipee collectors will still be doing Cataclysm dailies. 

I assume Volatile earth will likewise be used for levelling, it is selling for peanuts, and stacks very nicely.

There are no safe bets.  There are however informed ones.  

This is part of a series of posts.

I wont stockpile bags for Mists of Pandaria

I just read a comment on this blog about safe bets on what to stockpile for MoP.  Eek

My responses have already been written : Always question your assumptions.  What if 1000 tailors on your server each have 1000 bags ready made?

There are no safe bets.  There are good bets; but the moment people start talking about safe bets - well, you will be in for an ugly suprise.

For the record my previous came about over controversy from Breevok talking down Netherweave bags being a 'sure bet' for cataclysm's launch.  For the record; Breevok did actually stockpile Netherweave bags for cataclysm, and they did sell at a profit.  It was nice but not spectacular. 

The title of this post is exaggeration; I will have some bags for sale, as well as a broad mix of items I think will be needed in the first weeks, and then items for sale about 6 months in.

There will be more posts about my stockpile plans and recommendations, and I will (try to) label them consistently.  However, I will be spending as much time looking back as looking forward.

Stockpiling for Mists

In my previous post, I talked about stockpiling for Mists in the most general of terms; giving just a few clues.

This post talks about WoW Midas's inflation chart (go read it if you haven't recently).  It is flawed and incomplete; yet is the most rigourous compiled over time worksheet I know of.  I can pick apart the snapshot of any one item.  What I can't pick apart is the numbers as a whole - especially the comparitvly small month on month numbers vs the year on year numbers.

So what expansion should I stockpile? Classic is meh; BC is interesting, but Wrath mats have real inflation.  It is interesting to note that Cataclysm mats have fallen despite the huge influx of gold from this expansion.

So, we look at the Wrath index on a month by month basis.  Again any individual point can have statisical noise (April and July), but overall, the graph is fairly consistent.

It tells me: No significant price rise while the majority of players still have Wrath mats in their bank, but after those have sold (in about 6 months), then prices rose 200% to 250%.

I see no reason not to expect the same outcome for Cataclysm based mats in the next expansion.

Based on this very general information, as a basic 'what to stock'; a mix of cataclysm mats (basic ore, basic leather, basic herbs) with the intention of selling items after 6 months into Mists seems to be a reasonable option.  This seems to be far better than just letting gold rot (due to inflation) in the bank.

There will be future topics on this, both on my blog and on others.  What to stock coming up to the next expansion will become a hot topic revitalising many blogs and blog readerships.

Misty piles of stock

Back in the dying days of Northrend, we were asking this same question.  Albeit a little closer to the release date.

There are two things I would encourage readers to look at:

• Wow Midas's anniversary inflation update
• Blogs that were around at the end of northrend and the start of cataclysm.

Cold runs a montly blogging carnival here, and apparently he publises the topics around the 11th April. I thank him for suggesting the topic.  Yes, this time I will particpate.