I just read a comment on this blog about safe bets on what to stockpile for MoP. Eek
My responses have already been written : Always question your assumptions. What if 1000 tailors on your server each have 1000 bags ready made?
There are no safe bets. There are good bets; but the moment people start talking about safe bets - well, you will be in for an ugly suprise.
For the record my previous came about over controversy from Breevok talking down Netherweave bags being a 'sure bet' for cataclysm's launch. For the record; Breevok did actually stockpile Netherweave bags for cataclysm, and they did sell at a profit. It was nice but not spectacular.
The title of this post is exaggeration; I will have some bags for sale, as well as a broad mix of items I think will be needed in the first weeks, and then items for sale about 6 months in.
There will be more posts about my stockpile plans and recommendations, and I will (try to) label them consistently. However, I will be spending as much time looking back as looking forward.
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11 hours ago
There are no safe bets, only gambles. Investments are something different :)
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be selling bags. And lot's of them. It's been the same for every expansion and I don't expect it to change for Misty.
ReplyDeleteWhy would anyone stockpile BAGS? Bags don't stack. They take up extra space. Stockpile cloth, and bolt it up, stacks of 20. The people at launch buying cloth are going to mostly be new tailors powerleveling, so they'll need bolts anyway. Much less demand for raw cloth, it's hardly used in the other crafting professions, which just leaves First Aid. I fully expect to be selling netherweave bags for 50g+ the first week, each, or more. My only complaint about them is it takes about 10 seconds to craft one, I think the time on embersilk bag is shorter. I expect there to be a strong market for embersilk bags too. Unfortunately I hardly see any cheap embersilk cloth so it's hard for me to stockpile without farming it myself.
ReplyDeleteAssume that everyone that stays with WOW for MOP will roll one panda per account. Here's the math: 10 million accounts x 1 panda x 12 bags (Bank and toon) = 120,000,000 bags
ReplyDeleteAssume 33% are netherweave,Frostweave and Embersilk and average sell prices are 40g, 250g and 400g. That would be a potential bag market right out of the box of 27.2 billion gold.
For my server horde side only with an estimated 18,800 accounts this would translate into a potential bag market of 51.75 million gold.
The counter arguments will be that not everyone will buy MOP, not everyone will roll a panda or do so right away. Make your own assumptions about the number of accounts for your faction in your realm and predict a % who will make pandas. If only 10% on my server do, then that is an immediate 5.2million gold market you can service right out of the box. Sure there will be competition but my guess is that demand will initially exceed supply.
Anyone who tells you NOT to stockpile cloth for MOP is doing you a disservice.
Foo, although your gold tips are incisive and invaluable, you cant make the assumption that 1000 tailors on my realm and faction will all have the mats ready to go to make 1000 bags when MOP drops.
ReplyDeleteThat really assumes that 100% of the "server tailors" are really attuned to goldmaking and prepping for the expansion. It has not happened like that in the past and wont happen in the future with MOP. So that is not even close to a "valid assumption".
Only a small fraction of people really prepare for patch drops or expansions as it related to intensive gold making.