05 April 2012

Bags for Mists of Pandaria?

For the record, I am almost certain you will make a profit on bags for Mists of Pandaria.  I am also certain I could make money from Engineering. If you are after a post to cater to your confirmation bias, then you may need to read another blog.

My biggest concern about bags is that we know bags will make gold, so the supply will outstrip the demand; and we won't make a copper coin. Of course I could be wrong, I have been before, and I will be again.  But lets look at what we know, and can demonstrate.

  • Players will go from 10 toon slots/account/server to 11 toon slots in Mists
  • Bags need cloth
  • Cloth is traditionally farmed.
  • Cataclysm came out about 7 Dec 2010.
  • We have a price series of basic mats from WoW Midas.  Please remember that there are statistical limitations to how far we can push this data, but some trends are very clear.
Now, assuming - as some comments do - bags will be huge sellers in the first days, and make us all a gold cap very early on: some things should happen.
  • Other tailors won't cotton on
  • Players will leave their bag buying to the last moment.
  • Players will want bags on their pandas as soon as they logon - all 11 bag slots.
  • Players will be able to put bags on their pandas as soon as they logon.
  • As the prepared tailors sell out, there will be a mad consumption of any bag making cloth.  i.e. the prices of cloth with be a reflection of the prices of bags
Similar things should have happened with Worgens/Goblins for Cataclysm

I have build a chart based on the last expansion's inflation numbers.  I have taken the Classic, BC and Northrend cloth prices, turned them into indexes, and compared them against the relevant indexes of prices since cataclysm's launch. 



In looking back; I am looking for items that beat the Northrend index.  Similarly, in the future, I will be looking for items that beat the Cataclysm index.

If bags were important then the cloth line will beat the underlying index.  There may be other reasons why cloth sells or doesn't sell, but bags will be a large factor - especially initially.

You should be able to click on the picture for the full series, and on this link for the source document.

What does this graph tell me?
  • Northrend cloth (Frostweave) was the flavour of the month; leaving everything else behind.  And it continues to do so.  Wild swings certainly (and I would expect that given it's a single item on a single realm), but Frostweave cloth out performed everything I have looked at so far.  Assuming Frostweave was turned into bags, this may have been a good bet for Cataclysm.  I wouldn't know - I didnt sell them.  None of the blogs were recommending them either - everyone that suggested bags promoted Netherweave.  Do a google search.  Bragging rights go to the blog that recommended Frostweave bags as the bag to sell before Cataclysm - and to the reader that finds that blog.
  • BC cloth (Netherweave) was and still is anaemic; badly underperformed vs the BC index.  There simply was insufficient demand for this cloth to consume the available supply.  I am sure that Netherweave bags sold at a profit, but no explosive demand can be seen.  Not at the start of Cataclysm, and not now.
  • Classic cloth (Runecloth not really used for bags) outperformed Netherweave at every point.  It didn't perform as well as the Wrath index, let alone Frostweave.
All the blogs knew netherweave bags would strike it rich.  Only one blogger that I know of explicitly talked down Netherweave bags heading into Cataclysm.  I provided some moral support but merely followed his advice.  Looking at these numbers, this negativity was borne out by the chart above.  Sure you could make gold; but there were better places to do it.

When we look at Mists of Pandaria, there will be a new bag in the mix - Embersilk. 

Assuming that the transition to Mists of Pandaria (MOP)  will be similar to the transition to Cataclysm, if you thought bags were a good bet (and even if you are not sure), Embersilk is likely to be a very good purchase, and frostweave might be OK.  (Caveat emptor; I know my blog can influence prices; so I just bought a lot of embersilk cloth immediately before this post).

Doing this research was useful for me : I have hardened my resolve not to get involved in netherweave bags, I won't touch frostweave bags, but will look at embersilk in a more favourable light.

This post is part of a series on my stockpile for Mists of Pandaria, with thanks to Cold for his reminder that it is time to think about this topic via his April carnival topic.

Finally, I am flattered by the increase in readership (probably because I am writing something useful again).  However, if the blogging community suggest things to look at; we are probably right.  If anyone tells you about a sure fire bet; they could be wrong.  If everyone tells you there is a gold IWIN button - then they are almost certainly wrong.

12 comments:

  1. I concur wholeheartedly. I usually don't stockpile very much, but perhaps I will with embersilk. Currently, I'm selling bags hand over fist for a good profit, especially with the cost of cloth plummeting on my server. Keeping a bank tab full of cloth may turn a quick buck after the xpac release. Besides, I already have a butt load of dust as a shuffle by-product.

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  2. If you have an army of alts that you level, the best bet is the "traveler's Backpack" http://www.wowhead.com/item=4500 simply because it's a 16 slot bag, that sells for pennies most of the time and is NOT boe, which means i only need one set and i can use it on all my characters. It's the closest to a BOA bag i can think of, and will be my bag of choice for mists.

    I would imagine that the value of frostweave (and embersilk in the future) is what it is not because of bags, but because of the sheer volume of cloth required to make anything, and the scarcity with which it drops (at least compared to netherweave and runecloth)

    -Also note that the amount of runecloth available at the start of mists is going to be very different from cata because 1) people aren't going to be grinding the insane title and 2) they changed the drop rate when they removed the cloth as a rep turn in for the major factions

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  3. In reply to theatermusic87. You are correct that people aren't going to grind the insane title and that the drop rate has been altered as a result of the change to faction rep turn ins, however, you are forgetting the new addition of AoE looting. I look for this to significantly increase the amount of low level cloth especially.

    I already run my paladin tank from the start to finish of old world and bc dungeons, dragging everything from the start to the last boss in some instances, and just aoe them all down as I kill the bosses for transmog gear/etc. When AoE looting is put in the game, I will loot once, reset the instance and do it again, creating MASSIVE stockpiles of old cloth.

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  4. Also as an addition to my last comment, with the increase in old-world cloth (and frostweave cloth I'm assuming, since we will steamroll those dungeons too), there should be a reduction in value on illusion dust/eternal essence, arcane dust/greater planar (if yours are worth anything, my server isn't), and of course the ever profitable infinite dust / cosmic essence.

    Many savvy bankers will be crafting/de'ing a lot of tailor made goods in Mists.

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  5. Simple solution. Make a macro saying "WTB Embersilk cloth in bulk 50g per stack or 250g per stack of bolts. Taking trades or COD any time."

    I have gotten tons of cloth this way. I dont always base my numbers off the AH prices. If I did I'd be poor and would never make bags to begin with. Snatching low priced cloth off the AH is great but if your smart you press a macro in trade a couple times a day. I got 80 stacks from one person just last night. Guess what? I'm making tons of bags for tons of profit =)

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  6. I made a small fortune on Abyssal Bags for the first 2 months of Cata. Mats were cheap, 100-150g if I remember right, and they were selling for 400g+ a pop.

    Netherweave bags, I never really understood. They took so long to make, and usually sold for 8g-15g. Even recently when I checked, they were STILL selling for 15g. I don't get where the profit is there.

    Not sure whether bags will be the same opportunity going forward, though. Frostweave got silly cheap - Embersilk has always been expensive.

    Maybe people will continue buying Netherweave bags.

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    1. Just noticed WoWMarketeer's comment. Nice!

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  7. As a previously very casual consumer player, Netherweave Bags were the go-to for filling my bag slots. At 7-14g they were very affordable, and 16 slots wasn't bad. Paying 1000-2000% more for 4 or 6 extra slots was not in my best interest.

    This was the case in mid-Wrath when I started WoW and had a total wealth of no more than 500g, and continued throughout Cataclysm until a couple months ago when I started to manage my assets and start using the AH more... economically, with the help of WoWMarketeer (Hi!) and others.

    As far as Netherweave goes, I recently processed close to 200 stacks of cloth that I obtained purely from running my 70 twink through BC content. Most of it is still sitting in bolts, as I am hesitant to turn it all into Bags. Frostweave Cloth is selling at 50-80g per stack, and bags are 90-100% the price of Embersilk bags. I definitely see Embersilk Bags becoming more economical than Frostweave ever was/will be as MoP arrives.

    *I started spending ~15 minutes per day fishing up some Crates on Darkmoon Island, getting 20-25 per go (with moderate competition). Just from today and yesterday I've gotten about 10 stacks (no more than 30 minutes spent fishing), along with a bunch of other useful items. Did an experiment and listed all the loots from 25 crates, minus the obsolete foods, and it all sold for 1,000g total within the day.

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    1. Weiss@Kaelthas (US)April 5, 2012 at 2:47 PM

      Whoops meant to say 10 stacks of Embersilk Cloth up there in the last paragraph.

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  8. @Weiss. I have no doubt that Netherweave bags are a good purchase. The problem is that too many tailors know that. Netherweave bags are demand limited and in no way supply limited.

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  9. Greetings. Jim Younkin asked on one of his live streams why people would want to have top notch bags since trends have been to just buy 16 slot bags. In my drunken stupor I figured out the true answer to that question. Why? If you can AOE loot an old world dungeon. You clear the instance quickly and loot everything instantly. Will you do this once? Twice? Your max ability to enter the dungeon per hour? Well if your like me and want to do max per hour. Then you do not want to spend much time decided what to throw away and what to keep of the unlooted items on the ground. I go into the dungeon with 75 slots free. I clear twice and am full up. Bust out my Jeeves. Clear the junk. Clear 2 more times and I am full again? Or do I only get 1 more clear. I need the space on my low level dungeon clearing character to be able to hold more then I can loot.

    This is why I think Embersilk bags will do well. Maybe people attempt to stock pile. But an easy Trade Chat advertisement telling people the benefits of larger bags should alter the market. Even if you let other peoples bags clear first. No one will really be farming Cata area when they could be experiencing new content.

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  10. Weiss@Kaelthas (US)April 6, 2012 at 8:53 AM

    @Foo, I realize that, but I still think a large portion of the general bag market will be in Netherweave even as Mists comes, because they are leagues ahead of any vendor bags in terms of affordability and space.

    mahhafooznit: "an easy Trade Chat advertisement telling people the benefits of larger bags should alter the market"
    I think this could bring about a lot of change in the bag market for any given realm. With all Netherweave Bags, I literally had to tell myself the benefits of upgrading to Frostweave. Telling other players the boons of investing in permanent extra bag slots is a sure way to improve the market, from my own experience.

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