My biggest concern about bags is that we know bags will make gold, so the supply will outstrip the demand; and we won't make a copper coin. Of course I could be wrong, I have been before, and I will be again. But lets look at what we know, and can demonstrate.
- Players will go from 10 toon slots/account/server to 11 toon slots in Mists
- Bags need cloth
- Cloth is traditionally farmed.
- Cataclysm came out about 7 Dec 2010.
- We have a price series of basic mats from WoW Midas. Please remember that there are statistical limitations to how far we can push this data, but some trends are very clear.
- Other tailors won't cotton on
- Players will leave their bag buying to the last moment.
- Players will want bags on their pandas as soon as they logon - all 11 bag slots.
- Players will be able to put bags on their pandas as soon as they logon.
- As the prepared tailors sell out, there will be a mad consumption of any bag making cloth. i.e. the prices of cloth with be a reflection of the prices of bags
I have build a chart based on the last expansion's inflation numbers. I have taken the Classic, BC and Northrend cloth prices, turned them into indexes, and compared them against the relevant indexes of prices since cataclysm's launch.
In looking back; I am looking for items that beat the Northrend index. Similarly, in the future, I will be looking for items that beat the Cataclysm index.
If bags were important then the cloth line will beat the underlying index. There may be other reasons why cloth sells or doesn't sell, but bags will be a large factor - especially initially.
You should be able to click on the picture for the full series, and on this link for the source document.
What does this graph tell me?
- Northrend cloth (Frostweave) was the flavour of the month; leaving everything else behind. And it continues to do so. Wild swings certainly (and I would expect that given it's a single item on a single realm), but Frostweave cloth out performed everything I have looked at so far. Assuming Frostweave was turned into bags, this may have been a good bet for Cataclysm. I wouldn't know - I didnt sell them. None of the blogs were recommending them either - everyone that suggested bags promoted Netherweave. Do a google search. Bragging rights go to the blog that recommended Frostweave bags as the bag to sell before Cataclysm - and to the reader that finds that blog.
- BC cloth (Netherweave) was and still is anaemic; badly underperformed vs the BC index. There simply was insufficient demand for this cloth to consume the available supply. I am sure that Netherweave bags sold at a profit, but no explosive demand can be seen. Not at the start of Cataclysm, and not now.
- Classic cloth (Runecloth not really used for bags) outperformed Netherweave at every point. It didn't perform as well as the Wrath index, let alone Frostweave.
When we look at Mists of Pandaria, there will be a new bag in the mix - Embersilk.
Assuming that the transition to Mists of Pandaria (MOP) will be similar to the transition to Cataclysm, if you thought bags were a good bet (and even if you are not sure), Embersilk is likely to be a very good purchase, and frostweave might be OK. (Caveat emptor; I know my blog can influence prices; so I just bought a lot of embersilk cloth immediately before this post).
Doing this research was useful for me : I have hardened my resolve not to get involved in netherweave bags, I won't touch frostweave bags, but will look at embersilk in a more favourable light.
This post is part of a series on my stockpile for Mists of Pandaria, with thanks to Cold for his reminder that it is time to think about this topic via his April carnival topic.
Finally, I am flattered by the increase in readership (probably because I am writing something useful again). However, if the blogging community suggest things to look at; we are probably right. If anyone tells you about a sure fire bet; they could be wrong. If everyone tells you there is a gold IWIN button - then they are almost certainly wrong.