20 October 2010

Predictions for Cata glyph prices

Yesterday I posted about how glyph stocks were running down, and how inks and even herbs are still expensive.  Today I predict what happens next. Like all predictions take them with a grain of salt.  The chickens may have different entrails on your server.

Things I know:
  • Inks and herbs are more expensive than they have been in a long time.
  • Many inscriptionists are worried they will be left with unsellable stock.
  • Many inscriptionists are selling out of popular glyphs.
  • Cataclysm will drop 7 December 2010
  • Pre-made glyph stockpiles are getting smaller
  • No one will be farming northrend come cataclysm
  • You can't trade down Ink of the sea come cataclysm
  • There are XP gains for levelling toons gathering herbs.
  • Players are re-evaluating what classes/roles they like
  • New races means a wave of new alts all needing glyphs
Things I think:
  • Many players have only got those glyphs they need.  Players currently need raid glyphs.
  • Most of these players will swap to DPS spec/toons come cataclysm for levelling. They will want more glyph
  • Part time professionals (who are in it for the buffs) will consume a huge amount of herbs
  • New glyphs covering new spells will be released (needing herbs)
  • Most levelling toons will be 'gogogo' and won't bother to read up on the XP bonuses.
Based on this, and yesterday's post, my predictions for Cataclysm are:
  • On the first week of cataclysm, a single cataclysm herb will cost your first born lvl 85.
  • For the first 3 months of cataclysm, cataclysm herbs will cost about 60g/stack.
  • Ink of the sea will drop in price due to selling of stockpiles - about 2g/INK again (pre-4.0 levels)
  • All other inks will be in short supply.
  • Type 1 glyphs that were previously best in slot will sell well below replacement cost (See yesterday's post/Breevok's explanation)
  • Type 2 glyphs will raise in price - especially for DPS spells of tank/healer classes.

My predictions are mine.  I am betting my gold and stockpiles on it.  Use your own judgment as to whether these strategies will work for you.

6 comments:

  1. I'll be pushing back up to a stockpile of 20 of each glyph again over the next 7 weeks, providing I can still get herbs at a reasonable price. Totally agree with you about a new influx of demand for dps glyphs, nice post as ever.

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  2. I too agree and am betting on an increase in demand for DPS glyphs. The only point in your predictions that I would tend to quibble with is the expectation that previously BIS glyphs will sell below replacement cost. I think they will sell below replacement cost for 1 of 3 reasons:

    1 - Supplies from pre 4.0 make people happy to sell for a non-replaceable price
    2 - Supplies flood the market from people leveling inscription
    3 - Supplies flood the market from new part time professionals who see high prices on type 2 glyphs and mass produce type 1 glyphs.

    I think most of this will be curtailed, at least much more so than currently, after December. For (1), Pre 4.0 supplies can't last forever, and BIS glyphs will always sell well, as alts, levelers, and spec changers pick them up here and there. For (2), as for leveling, the 3 ink change means most will find it too expensive to produce many glyphs, and will blindly "power-level" through the path of least resistance listed on guides, which will be - scrolls, powder, occasional multi-point offhands, etc. And for (3), this will always happen some, but this market is also the one most likely to be crushed by the extra work of needing to use Cata herbs.

    In my mind, it's a pure waiting game until glyphs are at least as steadily profitable as before. But, also like before, the mass producers and undercutters will try to monopolize the market by being the one willing to work for the least, and the game will go back to being pretty similar to what it was throughout Wrath, except with more stable demand, more stable supply, and fewer bots.

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  3. Ink of the Sea will definitely not drop to under 2g/stack. What is the reasoning for this? Typo?

    If anything, WotLK herbs should increase from 20g/stack to 40g/stack.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ink of the sea will drop in Cata. How far I can't be sure.

    The reason is that all of the part time scribes will stock up on ink of the sea, expecting to use Jessica to convert them down. However, come Cataclysm they will only be able to use the new Cata ink and a new vendor. This will mean that they will have a surplus of one ink (IOTS), and a shortage of other inks.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think he meant 2g per ink, not stack.

    ReplyDelete
  6. edited post. 2g per ink of the sea (not per stack)

    ReplyDelete

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