12 July 2011

Critical Goblin's deep undercut comment recovered

There has been controversy over a comment made by Critical Goblin, and responses that both Breevok and I made.   The original post was deleted by it's author, but I have recovered it with permission (please see below)
 
Just had a quick look at your server. Definitely excellent potential to own the glyph market 1) cheap herbs, 2)high glyph fallback 3)good DM trinket prices.

I want to help u own the market.

1. create 3 groups of glyphs
Group a - druid, war, dk, pal
Group b - rog, priest, hunter, lock
Group c - mage, sham
2. create 3 chars for posting eg Foosella, Foosellb, Foosellc and give them 4 endless pockets each
3. set TSM automail group a to Foosella etc
4. craft a full stack of every glyph ie 20x every glyph in game
5. manually or using TSM get the correct glyphs to the correct char
6. set all fallbacks to 30g
7. set all thresholds to 12g
8. set duration 48hrs
9. set per auction to 1
10. set post cap to 4
11. for Reset method set Do Not Post
12. set ignore <2hr auctions
13. set ignore stacks over 1
14. set undercut by 9g
15. after posting join Trade and advertise "ALL GLYPHS 10-30G!!!! SUPPORT FOOSELLERS!!!! SEE YOUR LOCAL AH TODAY!!!!"

A few rules:
- u must be able to craft all glyphs
- u must maintain recraft sold glyphs back up to a full stack of 20

Explanations:
- by making and posting all glyphs with a fallback of 30g and a quantity of 4 u are creating a 30g ceiling on sell price. Now u control the max price. Yes someone can buy out your 4 and sell 1 at 200g, but within half a day u will be back and bam another ceiling.
- advertising in trade gets people used to low cost glyphs, and after a few weeks no one will pay 200g or 300g. they will just wait.
- the 9g undercut is basically 30g - 12g then divide that by 2. this is so that if a competitor undercuts your 30g auction and u undercut him, within 2 rounds the price for that 1 glyph is crashed to 12g. You let your competitor control this, ie fine if u want to crash the glyph's price to 12g go ahead undercut me. Soon he learns it is painful to undercut u.
- you need 20 of each glyph so that everytime u Post u have stock on u without having to cancel and unload the mailbox and then come back (remember each time u post u will throw 4 up per glyph). straight away u have an advantage over the cancel-getmail-relist dummy. make him mad by undercutting him, watch him cancel and undercut u and then immediately cut him with another wall of 4 haw haw.
- setting 12g threshold is similar to the 30g ceiling. u are now setting the second ceiling ie u are telling the competitors fine u can sell but u have to sell below 12g dont worry i wont undercut u but u have to sell for 11g.

This is what will happen:
1. Glyph A is on AH for 250g
2. u come along and list 4 x 30g
3. somebody either buys u out (which is good because @30g is a profitable sell price, right?) or they undercut u by 1cp
4. u come back half a day or 1 day later and list up 4 x 21g
5. undercut again
6. u relist again 4 x 12g
7. they buy u out
8. u list again 4 x 12g
9. they buy u out
10. u dont care because u just keep crafting more

At the start they will buy yours because they think they can get the market back up to 200g. When u keep creating a ceiling of 4x30g they realise:
What am i going to do with these 12g glyphs because i cant get to 200g price unless i also buy out the 4x21g wall and the 4x30g wall. And even if i buy out all 3 walls and can list my glyph for 200g, only if im lucky i will sell 1 for 200g.

Thats where u come along and set those 3 walls up again and they go fk this glyph, and try looking at other glyphs. but because u have crafted 20x all glyphs and u set the fallback ceiling u control the entire market.

A few weeks 1 competitor will give up. After a few more weeks the second one will give up. And so on and so on. When they leave u gain market share. increase the ceiling to 40g, then 50g then 60g. Dont be greedy or else they will come back.

The most important things are:
- hold stock of all glyphs
- hold 20 of each glyph
- set top ceiling
- set bottom ceiling

With those 4 things in place u now control the market. Thanks to your local Critical.

11 comments:

  1. The above post is as I recovered it from Google Cache, and is the writing of Critical Goblin

    For the record:
    * Critical Goblin posted the comment because he thought it would help me.
    * I didn't think it would help and disagreed.
    * I asked Breevok for a comment.
    * Breevok gave a quick comment that also disagreed.
    * Breevok had scheduled (and let me know ahead of time) that was dedicating a detailed post in response.
    * Critical Goblin felt personally attacked, and removed his comment. This was not my intention, nor do I believe it was Breevok's. Read the posts (here, here and here) and comments, and make up your own mind.
    * I strongly believe that the deep undercut is a method that all gold makers should understand, though not necessarily use.
    * I asked Critical Goblin to re-instate his post. He said that he did not have it, but I have permission to reproduce it if I can find the original.
    * I love google cache. The text above is what I extracted from it, though there may be some small formatting changes.
    * I thank Critical Goblin for his original post, for both his intentions, and the description of his method.
    * Disagreement - even when it is strongly worded, does not mean a personal attack. However, I will ask commenters on this blog to engage the arguments. (This means that saying someone earned 50g/hour is OK, but calling them no-lifer is is not).
    * I again ask Breevok to write his post in response.
    * Moonvengence, I would love a comment or 10, or guest post(s) from your experience on our server. (Acknowledging that I am trying to engage the player and not the argument)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Blogging as comments stripped my original links. The original posts are (this time with links): here, here, and here.

    ReplyDelete
  3. You can drop prices all you want but if you have someone who wants to make gold they will be around for the long term. I have played since year 2 of wow and have worked the AH every day. Price does not stop me. You may have the market when I am not there but don’t assume that I am gone. You may be stuck with a 12g or lower market. Take the assumption that I drive prices down to 12g. Now you are stuck with a low profit market. Presently in a shared market I sell 40-60 glyphs a day at an average price of 120gold. Make it 50 a day at 120 gets me 6k. Say you get 12g times 100glyphs a day you get 1200gold. Say you get 30g times 100 you get 3k. Do you really think owing a market is worthwhile.

    On my server we have someone who is trying to control the gem market. His problem is there are three of us who have whitelisted each other and undercut him all the time. We have also reworked prices which works well for 12-16hours. He is complaining that his strat hasn’t worked. Selling gems in the 15-30g market isn’t working for him as there are just too many there and they undercut him. The cost of the items in both the gem market and glyph market can make the balance of the market have almost a zero cost. In glyphs inferno ink when sold more than covered the costs of my inks. Glyphs could be rationalized down to being free. The same with inferno’s and ore. You can get to a point where people easily recoup there costs from one item and feel the rest has a zero cost. I know this doesn’t really reflect proper cost allocation but it is how many see it. If I buy all my mats….get back my gold and I am still left with stuff to sell……anything I get is good. This is what I think you will end up with. I have also seen this in the glyph market when there were 2g glyphs and I could sell mine at 50gold a day and still make 1000 gold.

    I think long term this strat just drops your profit. Owning a market is pointless when it is worth very little. Saying you can move it back up isn’t really a great strat as you will have the same competition. In most cases people just drop out naturally. They really don’t need the push as it just engages them.

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  4. I am honored to have sparred with 2 Muhammad Ali's of the wow blog clique.

    I fear 3 days of front page TUJ exposure may have poured fuel on fire in unleashing this Pandora's Box on all servers.

    For those that cannot survive the bombardment of glyphs at paper thin profits in the next few months I apologize. To the goblins that manage to operate lean manufacturing and apply my method correctly, you're welcome. Just dont forget to thank Foo and Bree without which my little post would be just that.

    Now Critical does wonder where to go from here. If only google cache had not foiled my plan of selling my soul to JTMC for 15mins of fame and $20. Oh wait, Bree has more than helped get me 3 times that amount of airtime.

    I'm a jerk, you're a jerk, we're all jerks. It's easy to be a jerk when you're not face to face with a goliath that can and will punch your head in. That's right, bodychecking someone over the internet is easy, we all can write loud.

    As always Critical will be lurking in the background grading your blog post. If you do not see Critical for a while pat yourselves on the back for not blogging about, zomg i found another pet to resale. Be good, be safe and take care Foo and foo-readers. Critical out.

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  5. Foo, Sard (Bree)and CG, a great story, tale, blog/s, or series of comments from all. I for one love the little digging you must do to follow the storyline, it also helps when you know two of the players. It had it all, drama, intrigue, loss and recovery, heros and villians and a happy ending.
    Now the problem, how are you all going to top this. :P

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  6. Ok ok theres no point for readers to do the Critical way wrong and make me look bad. I will explain the bottom ceiling in more detail.

    The bottom ceiling is not a price point below cost. The bottom ceiling is your glyph cost price + 1g.

    For example, lets say on your server with your method of crafting you can make any glyph for 11g. So bottom ceiling = 12g.

    And lets say you sell all glyphs at the following 3 price points.

    1. Bottom ceiling
    Sell price = 12g
    AH cut = 60s
    Gold in hand = 11.4g
    Profit = 40s
    Profit (yes/no) = yes

    2. Mid point
    Sell price = 21g
    AH cut = 1.05g
    Gold in hand = 19.95g
    Profit = 8.95g
    Profit (yes/no) = yes

    3. Top ceiling
    Sell price = 30g
    AH cut = 1.5g
    Gold in hand = 28.5g
    Profit = 17.5g
    Profit (yes/no) = yes

    At all 3 price points of the above example, profit = yes. Of course 17.5g is not as attractive as the profit margin on a 300g glyph sale. Goodluck fighting with the rest of the server for that 300g sale especially since it only takes 1 CG doing the above correctly to ruin everyone's fun (to his/her benefit).

    Disclaimer: this method was meant for Foo, an advanced scribe who would have efficient buying, crafting, and selling procedures in place. The above only covers Selling. If you are losing to another CG, his buying/crafting is more efficient than yours. Figure out how or go home to cry.

    Disclaimer 2: yes the CG method takes time and effort and versus another pro CG it's "better" to focus on your other markets. This is exactly what Critical wants.

    Disclaimer 3: don't be afraid to raise the top ceiling, just remember this is not the Greedy Goblin way ie dont be greedy with your top ceiling. Of course if you try 100, 200 or 300g top ceilings everyone will swarm back. Critical's patented 2-cycle undercut method is the counter but only if you're not greedy. You'll know what I mean when you raise slightly too high and they all come back like bees to honey.

    Ok now go forth my pretties and "ruin" your server's glyph market whilst making your first million. Remember to credit grandpa Critical in your wowecon interview for your massive success. You heard right. Cocky Goblin promises massive wealth. Oops I meant Critical Goblin. Or did I ... /sigh why so serious, its just pixels.

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  7. I love you Critical Goblin

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  8. Might just have to do this on my server, just for fun and because I hate the glyph market ><

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  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. Thanks Foo. Me being the noob blogger and all.

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