08 February 2011

New glyph - updated *2

Update : Dark Succor was the new glyph

For details go read Kaliope's site Glyph of colossus smash. It was Dark Succor rather than Collussus smash.

Regardless of the obvious desire for aware scribes to learn this glyph and post it for insane prices on the AH, there is also the direct impact on blackfallow inks.

Lets make several assumptions.  Some numbers are chosen for ease of calcuations:
  • a server with 8,000 toons: 
  • 50% horde, 50% alliance (down to 4,000 players)
  • even distribution of classes, 10 classes (down to 400 players)
  • 75% of population being Level 81+ (down to 300 players) **
  • Glyph is desirable for 1 spec, even distribution of specs (100 players per spec)
  • 30% of players who this glyph is desireable for get this glyph now (30 players)
  • 5% of players who this glyph is undesirable for (2 specs) get this glyph now (5 + 5 players).
  • 4 scribes that read patch notes and play the AH, rougly equal in capability.
  • Each glyph maker estimates that they can sell twice the number of glyphs they actually will sell.  All glyphs are initally sold via the AH.
(** http://www.warcraftrealms.com/census.php?class=Warrior can get you a different estimate of the number of warriors on your server/faction)

This means a total initial demand on your faction might be 40 glyphs, and as one of the 4 scribes you are likely to sell 10 glyphs initially.  However, each of the 4 makes 20 glyphs because that is what they think they can shift.

4 scribes * 20 glyphs * 3 blackfallow inks each means a spike in demand for 240 blackfallow inks, during a darkmoon faire.  Prices on blackfallow ink/herbs rise, but not by a huge amount.

There will be a longer tail as people with dual spec, completionists, class forums all decide to get this glyph later, as well as a slow stream of warriors dinging.

It does not matter that all of the above assumptions are wrong in so many ways.  One of the 'arts' in making gold is researching what you can, and guessing what you can't.  Feel free to post your own comments about the assumptions.  Bragging rights if you guess correctly and post about it before the glyph is released tonight.

After the rush is over, have a look at your research and guesses.  You can know how many glyphs you end up selling, and make another guess as to what assumptions were correct and what were not.

eg.  If you end up selling only a few, but you see another scribe immediately undercutting you, then your problem was that each scribe was not equal in capability.  If you see 1 (or 20) different toons immediatly listing the glyph then you know the number of toons that research things like patch notes.

You can then use your refined assumptions for the 'next big thing', and even your ongoing regular AH posting strategies.

5 comments:

  1. I'd warn you to be careful with this.

    As far as I know, this glyph has been live since 4.0.1 or before. I know I have it in my list of craftable glyphs and I've been selling it since October of last year.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ya GoCS isn't new. And isn't a particularly great seller. Goes for about 60g on Cael. Better off converting the 3 BF inks to Ethereal.

    - Neoriv.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Same for me, I've known this glyph for awhile and sadly so do other scribes on my server so it's been widely available and price is relatively cheap.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That's what I get for posting from work.

    Oh well

    ReplyDelete
  5. Out of interest I visited the Dal vendor today. She isn't selling the glyph any more.

    I do seem to remember that originally (4.0) it was crafted with Sea rather than BF (which makes sense as BF didn't exist then).

    I suspect that at the time the mats changed (4.0.3?) it was removed from the vendor, and possibly is about to be re-introduced. Just a guess.

    Neo.

    ReplyDelete

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