04 February 2011

Darkmoon faire

It's that time of the month.

Herb prices have already gone up, as well as Inferno Ink prices.  Last time around several card makers made a fortune.  I saw reports of 40k Darkmoon trinkets, at huge profit margins.  I was too conservative and merely sold inks, also at very large profits.

Personally, I will remain conservative, and continue to sell inks, all the while encouraging card makers. 40K trinkets were sold last faire. Make while they are hot Inferno ink for sale

My observations are:
  • Herb and Ink prices rise in the days leading up to the faire.  It appears lots of card making occurs here.
  • A glut of unactivated decks hit the market.
  • Trinkets, unactivated decks, herb and Ink prices fall mid faire.
  • The cheapest of the trinkets and decks get bought for stockpile, and prices start rising again.
  • Just as the faire is about to finish, there is a mad scramble to finish decks, with herb prices rising a little, and inferno ink prices rising a lot. Decks are turned in, also for stockpile.
  • After the faire has finished, inferno ink prices crash, and herb and blackfallow ink prices fall again.  Decks that were not turned in stop selling.
  • Those that didn't buy suffer from 'I coulda, woulda, shoulda' - and buy overpriced completed trinkets for a week.
  • Two weeks after the faire, everyone forgets about it, buyers and sellers alike.

If you also see a similar pattern, you may wish to pick a niche and make your gold.

Me? I will try to sell overpriced Inferno Ink. (and glyphs - but I always sell glyphs)

2 comments:

  1. I've struggled and gone back and forth on this one many times over the past month. Finally, last week--without any reasoned decision--I dove in and started buying cheaper cards. I crafted a few too, though didn't go as far as purchasing ink to do it en-masse. I started with 10ish cards, though I've kept buying any sub 1500g cards if I don't have at least 2 (except stones--they suck).

    I discovered a market that I've been having a lot of fun with. Card *trading*. For all the people selling cards on the AH, there are a number of traders who seem always willing to trade for the cards they need on a one to one basis (or better) without considering AH values. There have been at least three or four occasions now when I've been able to make absurdly disproportionate trades with people who are oblivious to the AH side of the card market.

    Last night for example, someone had 3 embers cards, and wanted 2 stones cards. I immediately whispered him that I could grudgingly give up my two favorite stone cards, jogged to the AH and bought them for a combined price of 1100g, traded for the 3 embers, put 2 on the AH for about 3k each, and traded the third with a ~1k winds card for a 4k waves card and a full earthquake deck. So in the course of half an hour and 2 trades, I spent ~2.2k on cheep cards, and ended with 10k of cards on the AH and a full quake deck...

    It remains to be seen whether any of these cards will sell for anything near those prices - so far I've mostly accumulated cards and had only sporadic success selling them - but I've been thoroughly enjoying myself playing the trading game. I've got about 30k sunk in purchases, made about 10k in sales, but have ~20 cards in my inventory, a completed hurricane deck and a completed quake deck.

    So now I'm pulling my hair out with anticipation wondering what will happen to the prices and sales come Sunday... A full month of pent up demand for BIS healer and caster trinkets vs. a month's worth of an unknown level of building supply...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Oh, another interesting phenomenon. I have almost three full embers decks completed. But in two weeks of twice daily AH checks and trade calling, I have not seen one single Ace of Embers in circulation. My personal suspicion is that there's a goblin out there with time on his hands immediately snatching every single darn one, trying to strangle the volcano deck market. I fully expect that as of Sunday, the aces will start showing up on the AH for obscene prices, and will sell--because us collectors all have 7 cards worth invested and will be desperate to complete the decks. If this occurs, I will in fact be successfully screwed by this guy, and he will deserve congratulations for a very well played win. It's a strategy I may well use for next month.

    ReplyDelete

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