Eratic glyph posting - by design

At the moment there is a steady but slow demand for glyphs, with prices all over the place.  Some players (especially those on Alliance Caelestrasz) will find this post 'assertive', but it has been the reality for the last week.

Again using the undermine journal, I have a few images to show

I prefer to sell Dark Succor on my server than on Hydraxis Alliance.  In fact, I would not be selling it on Hyrdraxis Alliance. 

Yet even Hydraxis Alliance has what I consider profitable glyphs (eg Explosive shot below)

For me, glyphs generally sell shortly after posting or not at all.  At the moment, all that leaving glyphs up for 48 hours seems to do is suppress the long term price of it.  The more frequently I post, the more glyphs I sell, and will intend to post several times per day over the weekend, but only once or twice per day during the week.  Posting 1 or posting 10 makes very little difference to my sales, but a large difference to my effort in mail collection. 

I am attempting to take sales from my competitors.  In turn they will attempt to take sales from me.  Some will do so by posting when I dont (i.e. early AM).  Others will post walls of glyphs (5 or so at a time).  Yet others will track my toons and logins, and immediately undercut.  Finally there are those who post as/when they can.

I want to discourage immediate undercutters.  Some will undercut at 1 copper, which has no real effect on prices, but I personally find a little annoying.  I will undercut by 5 g on the majority of glyphs, with a larger undercut on glyphs that dont do as well.  There will be times that I will post, log out, wait 5 minutes, log back in and re-post.  If this re-posts a lot of glyphs, I will rinse and repeat.  This will annoy other glyph sellers, as repeated repost cycles will crash some prices in fairly quick order.

My current frame of mind is to have profitable sales, and continue to dump my few remaining significantly underperforming glyphs.  For the majority, I will post 1 of each glyph regularly with a 24 hour window.  I work during the day, and am not organised enough to post before work.  Some days I will (either accidentally or deliberately) allow all glyphs to expire. 

For glyph costs, I base it on the price of the most expensive ink (blackfallow), but will continue to buy and get milled cheaper herbs and use them for additional profit.  At some stage I expect to need per ink pricing, but today is not that day.

Compared to a month ago, not many glyphs are currently selling (with some attributing it to Australian kids returning to school), but we are selling ok.  It is also my belief that players will happily spend 40-60g on a glyph just in case but will only buy glyphs they need at 200g.  If pricess fall, then we will sell more glyphs.



If I find my profits falling, I will be more aggresive.  I will probably adjust my pricing in a fortnight regardless.

Given our known experience with Dark succor, and other anecdotal evidence, the majority players do not yet have a full set of glyphs.  New players, new alts and players backfilling glyphs will all contribute to ongoing demand.  It appears that 4 scribes can fulfill the current demand for glyphs.  There will be spikes where patches add glyphs, change glyphs, or popular forums change their glyph suggestions, where temporary demand may exceed regular supply.  Over the course of Cata, I expect that demand will fall off from current levels, but not much lower.

Glyhs will continue to form a significant part of my income expectations.  However, with a falling time commitment to glyph crafting, I will be exploring other professions again for profit opportunities.

Glyph of Dark Succor

A couple of days ago, I posted about expectations for a new glyph. Now, apart from getting the glyph name and source wrong, the rest of the post is very much applicable.

This glyph appears to be aimed at PVP DK's; or possibly PVE for DPS DK's that really need extra healing but are not in tank (blood) presence. Personally I expected more sales of a new glyph but it is early days yet.  The undermine journal is not showing lots of glyphs being listed or sold, nor is there a lot of competition.

I would love to have been 100% correct in my assumptions, but oh well.

According to WoW Census there are about 1000 DK's level 81-85 on alliance Caelestrasz.
7 scribes have listed the glyphs, and are currently selling them.


The undermine journal thinks that our server has sold about 24 glyphs, but as it has missed mine (not that I have sold many), I know it missed some, but may have over reported others.  Others will be crafted by guild scribes.

Gold makers think differently to many other players.  We often prepare and pre-purchase items.  Compare and contrast with the majority of players using this glyph will think of purchasing it when their GM/raid leader/forum/arena partner tells them too.  They have not been told to buy it yet, so have not.

I am expecting that more glyphs will be sold in the next few days, but the majority of sales for it will trickle in over the expansion.  Even if guild scribe crafts 1/2 of the total made, that still only 60 (out of 1000) or so DK's with the glyph.  Not so much glyphmas, but it does bode well for the longevity of glyph making.

Pop Quiz : Screenshots

What are these screenshots of, and where did I source them?

Hint:  Look at recent posts, both on my website, and on my blogroll.

Update : Neo got what it was right, but as I left the name on the image in the glyph - it may have been cheating.  (I have deleted his comment - but he still gets bragging rights)

So updated question : What is important about this item?

Good DPS is desirable

Unless there is an enrage timer, good Damage Per Second is not mandatory. There have been a few comments, both on this blog and in game about my attitude towards this (apparent) holy grail.


The discussions tend to be around healers going OOM early in a heroic dungeon, so apparently you need 3 strong DPS (with the unspoken assumption of a zergish approach).  While this is a perfectly acceptable approach, and may even be conventional wisdom, it is by no means necessary. 


One in response to this comment : The only place I've heard people even consider taking more than 1 tank or healer to 5man dungeons is from gold making websites!  The PUG and I collect tanks and healers; 70% of my regular players have a tank.  I have been slightly short on healers, and very short on DPS. 


Stupid (adj) : lacking ordinary quickness and keenness of mind;  Those reading after the break may be mildly offended.

Heroics : Dungeon finder or Guild run

According to the bloggosphere there is a shortage of tanks.  Others have been talking about how tanks are choosing not to queue because it is harder, but a point has been missed. 

We are getting a large buff if we run with 3 strangers.  3 strangers means no guild XP or rep. 

Take your choice - Guild XP on a guild run, or bonus damage with a random group.  Even if your guild group does not know how to run the dungeon, you can learn, and feel like you are progressing.  With pugs, there is no such feeling.  I am a tank, and know my preference.  If you were a tank, what would you prefer?

New glyph - updated *2

Update : Dark Succor was the new glyph

For details go read Kaliope's site Glyph of colossus smash. It was Dark Succor rather than Collussus smash.

Regardless of the obvious desire for aware scribes to learn this glyph and post it for insane prices on the AH, there is also the direct impact on blackfallow inks.

Lets make several assumptions.  Some numbers are chosen for ease of calcuations:

• a server with 8,000 toons: 
• 50% horde, 50% alliance (down to 4,000 players)
• even distribution of classes, 10 classes (down to 400 players)
• 75% of population being Level 81+ (down to 300 players) **
• Glyph is desirable for 1 spec, even distribution of specs (100 players per spec)
• 30% of players who this glyph is desireable for get this glyph now (30 players)
• 5% of players who this glyph is undesirable for (2 specs) get this glyph now (5 + 5 players).
• 4 scribes that read patch notes and play the AH, rougly equal in capability.
• Each glyph maker estimates that they can sell twice the number of glyphs they actually will sell.  All glyphs are initally sold via the AH.

(** http://www.warcraftrealms.com/census.php?class=Warrior can get you a different estimate of the number of warriors on your server/faction)

This means a total initial demand on your faction might be 40 glyphs, and as one of the 4 scribes you are likely to sell 10 glyphs initially.  However, each of the 4 makes 20 glyphs because that is what they think they can shift.

4 scribes * 20 glyphs * 3 blackfallow inks each means a spike in demand for 240 blackfallow inks, during a darkmoon faire.  Prices on blackfallow ink/herbs rise, but not by a huge amount.

There will be a longer tail as people with dual spec, completionists, class forums all decide to get this glyph later, as well as a slow stream of warriors dinging.

It does not matter that all of the above assumptions are wrong in so many ways.  One of the 'arts' in making gold is researching what you can, and guessing what you can't.  Feel free to post your own comments about the assumptions.  Bragging rights if you guess correctly and post about it before the glyph is released tonight.

After the rush is over, have a look at your research and guesses.  You can know how many glyphs you end up selling, and make another guess as to what assumptions were correct and what were not.

eg.  If you end up selling only a few, but you see another scribe immediately undercutting you, then your problem was that each scribe was not equal in capability.  If you see 1 (or 20) different toons immediatly listing the glyph then you know the number of toons that research things like patch notes.

You can then use your refined assumptions for the 'next big thing', and even your ongoing regular AH posting strategies.

Recruiting

Arozcaldo is re-opening as an active guild, on Oceanea/Caelestraz/Alliance.

For end game players:

• I will be organising 5 man dungeon runs (mostly heroics) 2-3 times a week, soon moving to raiding Saturday nights.  Runs that I organise will gerenally start around 8:30.
• Runs that I organise will largely be progression style - I do not repeat a lot of old content.  
• Mild preference is given to in-guild members (especially so we get guild points from), but is by no means obligatory.  If you love your guild but have compatible free time, you are still welcome to run with us.
• New healers are most welcome.  Training, and assistance will be given.  Older content will also be re-run if needed.
• I have an established raid etiquette.  (TL:DR - It's ok to encourage, but if you need to be a jerk about it - whisper me instead).

You need to be able to work together within a team.  When you are running heroics or raids, you will be expected to have all slots filled with at least basic enchants, and gems, and be glyphed.  Likewise, you will some potions, flasks and elixirs.  Swearing is frowned upon. Swearing at (or in the general direction of) others is not tolerated.

Members working towards Thats a lot of bait, Mix Master, and Set the Oven to 'Cataclysmic'. will be subsidised.

Questing & levelling toons will have a generous repair allowance.

I started raiding early 2009, raiding mostly once per week.  My progress for Wrath is covered here.

Darkmoon faire

It's that time of the month.

Herb prices have already gone up, as well as Inferno Ink prices.  Last time around several card makers made a fortune.  I saw reports of 40k Darkmoon trinkets, at huge profit margins.  I was too conservative and merely sold inks, also at very large profits.

Personally, I will remain conservative, and continue to sell inks, all the while encouraging card makers. 40K trinkets were sold last faire. Make while they are hot Inferno ink for sale

My observations are:

• Herb and Ink prices rise in the days leading up to the faire.  It appears lots of card making occurs here.
• A glut of unactivated decks hit the market.
• Trinkets, unactivated decks, herb and Ink prices fall mid faire.
• The cheapest of the trinkets and decks get bought for stockpile, and prices start rising again.
• Just as the faire is about to finish, there is a mad scramble to finish decks, with herb prices rising a little, and inferno ink prices rising a lot. Decks are turned in, also for stockpile.
• After the faire has finished, inferno ink prices crash, and herb and blackfallow ink prices fall again.  Decks that were not turned in stop selling.
• Those that didn't buy suffer from 'I coulda, woulda, shoulda' - and buy overpriced completed trinkets for a week.
• Two weeks after the faire, everyone forgets about it, buyers and sellers alike.

If you also see a similar pattern, you may wish to pick a niche and make your gold.

Me? I will try to sell overpriced Inferno Ink. (and glyphs - but I always sell glyphs)

Who moved the cheese? - revision 3

(If you feel like you are missing 1/2 the conversation, you need to also read Coffee, Smokes & AH fees)

Back in the dying days of Wrath, there were a dozen glyph sellers all selling all the glyphs, and maybe a dozen glyph buyers.  There was even the occasional buyer who didn't also sell glyphs.  Herbs and ink were cheap, and glyphs only needed one ink to craft.  Prices were cheap.

I was busy playing deep undercutter.  Some tried playing monopolist and purchased my glyphs for relisting, so I simply sold more.  I built up a 40 of each glyph stockpile with an eye for 3 glyph inks needing the (not yet available) cata inks.  I also stockpiled inks and herbs.  Several of us suspected that some glyph sellers were gold sellers.  I started selling glyphs at miniscule profits, with a stated goal of keeping the number of glyph players to a minimum.

In an already crowded market, along came a new player, with a deep wall of glyphs with a 1c undercut.  Cata hit, and prices rose.  Between prices largely set by me, combined with the wall created by the new player, and Breevok plugging the holes, we had a nice market.  The 3 of us were dominant, with over 85% of the listed glyphs belonging to the three of us. Any co-operation was merely accidental.  We were all in competition, carving out our individual niches.  My concerns were about additional players entering the market, rather than the other two known accounts.

Things had been quiet for about a fortnight with no unusual changes.  I was making gold easily, though perhaps down a little on the peak a fortnight before.  I had two toons selling well, and a third toon full of glyphs that were not selling.

Breevok stirred the pot(*).  He does that now and then.  (I can be goaded into action, and ... well this time he has explicitly issued a call to arms).

I re-worked my auctions.  My best selling glyphs I priced up in la-la land(*).  My medium glyphs I left largely alone.  I started dumping my worst glyphs, agressive pricing, but one at a time on the AH.  Many of these glyphs hit 5g each, and started selling.  My best selling glyphs were starting to sell at obscene prices, and my cheapest glyphs were moving too.  Who should be buying the cheap glyphs?  Mostly it was Moonvengence.

I offered Moonvengence my surplus stock COD, he accepted (well many of them anyway).  He and I had an in game mail exchange, and a whisper conversation declaring a cease fire(*).  Intentional or not, he then immediatly undercut all my auctions that I had just posted.

Now we have all these interlopers entering my market.  It's mine I tell you - all mine (did you hear that I am prone to delusions?).  Breevok is right, between Moonvengence and myself we are capable of driving out all but the most tenacious of competitors.  He was also right in saying that it was hard work.  (I would like that hot cocoa now please).  Regular readers - don't worry;  Competitors, do what you will; I am not going anywhere. 


(Missteps that opened the door for other glyph sellers are marked with * above.  The revision 3 part of the title comes because I have been on a roller coaster ride this week with sales (subject for another post)).


I am currently have a 'neutral' price outlook.  I will watch, and wait.  Have a look at what they are selling, and how quickly I am undercut.  If I make too few sales, I increase the number of postings and undercut, decrease fallback and theshold; too many sales, and I do the opposite.  With luck I may be able to maintain my different pricing strategies according to sales, but may have to look at a pricing per cost basis.  I suspect that Moonvengence may decide to re-enter a price war (hopefully generally rather than specifically targeted).  Breevok will most likely continue his morning postings, covering markets that were sold out overnight.  I suspect I will be more aggressive soon..



With additional sellers there will be additional demand on herbs, as these players build their stockpiles.  Darkmoon fair is not very far away, and some (other) sellers made a bundle on cards last time around.  Based on that bundle, more players will be making cards, placing additional demand on herbs and volatile life.  Best of luck (and profit) to the herbalists.

Heroic Progress

Last week I suggested that I should run more heroics (safe for work - not your ego).  If you are not yet comfortable and used to be a raider - you should run more as well. 

I set a myself a challenge to start at least 3 heroics, which I have done:

• 2 tanked & finished Vortex Pinacle, with the second run being much easier. Tip for 2nd boss : Dodging (or not) whirlwinds means success (or failure).  Getting upwind means you succeed (or fail) more quickly.
• 1 tanked Deadmines run - called due to instance server restart after wiping on the first boat boss.  There were other wipes while learning both trash and boss mechanics.
• 1 healed Stonecore run (first time healing a heroic).  Called on Slabhide (second boss) due to time of night & struggling on boss.

You prevent wipes by learning to play.  This does not mean topping DPS charts, but learning when and how to move.  I failed on Slabhide as much as anyone in the group, because I didn't know the enough about either the fight, or my own healing abilities.


We called Slabhide because of dying to avoidable damage, plus inefficient heals.  As a disc priest I spent an aweful lot of time binding heal because I took to much damage.  (Some players think they can play both tank & healer.  Very different mindsets, and some players change gears very slowly.  E.g. me)
For my next Slabhide healing run:

• Dogde boulders. I should have learned this on normal.
• Puddles have a dust cloud immediately before they appear.  Move.
• A single pillar is not always enough to hide behind.  There were times I was sure I was being hit from both sides of a pillar.  I think the boss when this happened, but I am not sure.
• More AOE heals.  I didn't use prayer of healing at all.  I only used divine hymn once in multiple wipes.  More renew.

For heroics in general I have more thoughts.

Disc priest smites are a nice cheap heal replacement, and set you up for bigger heals when you need them.

Don't expect 'progression' instances to be gogogo, 15 minute runs.  These are new and hard for people to do.  The expectation that Farm Heroic = quick run is something to be left behind when we left Northrend.  You will be able to quickly farm them again when your party has both Cata Dungeon Hero and raid gear.  On that point, I am no longer joining heroic groups when thinking about heading to bed soon.  Sunday - Wednesday nights I will not start a heroic after 9pm.  Thursday nights I won't run heroics at all.

You don't need 3 Damage dealers.  More than 1 tank is useful.  More than 1 healer is useful.  People are dying due to lack of knowledge, lack of CC and incorrect movement.  Offtanking is a form of CC, whether it is done by a pet or player.  Classes that dont have CC may still have interupts & stuns.  High DPS is nice, and will make life easier, but does not make the difference between a Heroic completion and failure.  Dodging fire does.

(PS. Glyphs became very interesting.  Read Breevok's post.  I have drafted 3 different posts, all trashed  hours later.  I have not gone away, just temporarily quiet)