14 September 2010

Glyph War? Hopefully it drives out competition

This post is in response to Breevok's reply to my recent glyph post.

I was feeling ... melodromatic.  If it helps, I also do public speaking at Rostrum (shameless plug), and am trying to work on my dramatic style.  Please forgive me (or not).  If it helps to keep Breevok making posts, I will be dramatic more often. 

Hopefully it came accross the way that 'run away little girl' is meant to, but ... who knows.  I think that we are read by other glyph sellers.  Being 'on message' works in the political arena, and can spook the opposition (or here in Australia even the government).  I know that it would also work in blogs, but my limit for repeating myself is about twice.  So ... I will fail to scare the little girls away.  Regardless it was a fun post to write.

Breevok was right, it is the threshold I am testing, not the fallback. 

In glyphs, Breevok makes more gold.  I made about 2k in sales last week (at 5g/glpyh), probably about 1.1k profit.  The back of a napkin says that I sold about the 450 glyphs that he did.

When I got back, I posted (one toon of three toons -  Foobarfoo) at 4g10 and went for tea.  By the time I got back most of my glyphs were undercut. 

So, I posted glyphs betweeen 3g60 - 4g10.  After I posted, there were over 80 pages of glyphs up.  Wow.  Glyphs are very interesting at the moment, with far too many players being interested.  By too many I mean that they are taking my profits.  Mine I tell you, all mine. 

3g60 glyphs are an attempt to test the competition.  I have already been largely undercut, and I am astounded at this.  I move slowly, and I will look at the prices next week.  Breevok has also set me a challenge.  I am jealous of his graphs.  I will try to be as structured as he has been.  I will also see what information I can extract out of Beancounter (apparently it can be exported to an spreadsheet).

In answering Breevok's question my profit/hour will be: number of glyphs * (Glyph sale - (ink cost + parchment cost)) / (posting time + mail gathering time + glyph making time).

Assuming:
  • Number of glyphs : 450
  • Glyph Sale = 3.6g
  • Ink cost = 1.6g (my current AH snatch or payment to Wek)
  • Resilient Parchment cost = 50s
  • Posting time 3 toons * 2 minutes * 10 times/week = 60 minutes.  I largely post AFK on my son's account, doing something else while I am waiting.  However, logging between toons is a pain, and can sometimes take a while and attention.
  • Mail gathering 3 toons * 1 minutes * 4 times/week = 15 minutes (approx).  I only collect mail every so often.  I will be AFK when this occurs
  • Glyph Crafting time: 2 seconds (cast time + lag) * 450 glyphs = 15 minutes (approx). I batch glyph making.
  • Deposit costs can be ignored.
Of course being assumptions, these are all wrong. I wont sell exactly 450 glyphs this week.  Some glyphs will sell for more than 3g60.  I will pick up cheap inks.  I will spend more time tracking the posts of glyphs.

But assuming the above, 450 * (3.6 - 2.1) / 1.5 hours = 450g/hour.  This is too little, I would make more in other markets.  Anyone undercutting me would make more profit/hour selling inks.  (I don't make inks)

What are my risks?
  • That I drive out all my competition and have to supply the entire market.  That is too much work for me, I burn out and let the price reset.
  • I discover that the opposition is as stubborn as I am, and we have a permanent price of 2g90.
What can I do different?
  • Post for even less, in order to raise my sales.
  • My largest time commitment is logging into posting toons.  I could post 10 glyphs at a time to reduce this, combined with a reduced fallback.
  • Post for more in order to raise profit/sale.
  • Set a higher price for low stock glyphs.  I suspect that is where the majority of sales for both Breevok and I come from.  At the moment, I don't spend the time tracking what glyphs sell and what glyphs dont.  I really should.

What do I hope to get out of an extended period of very deep undercutting?
  • Fewer competitors.  There is a moment in cataclysm when glyphs will have their day in the sun.  I want to discourage others from sharing in that moment.  I have zero intentions (or ability) to entirely stop them from sharing it.  Previous experience shows that it takes about a fortnight before others leave the market.  I especially want to make gold hard for campers.  They make goldmaking hard for me.  By the way WoW has different laws than real life.  But then abusing market power and market collusion are both illegal and rife in Australia.
  • Cheaper herb prices.  This might be in vain.  I am stockpiling inks, and others are too.  With cheaper herb prices, I will be able to squeeze suppliers of inks.
What we will do is give a real life example of is the Gevlon vs Marco glyph approach (deep vs shallow undercut).  I am unsure which will triumph.

    6 comments:

    1. *smiles* I admit I was a little nervous clicking the link on my post - the melodramatic tone had concerned me a little and my post was less than comforting in response. Glad to see you haven't damned me for all eternity.

      ReplyDelete
    2. @Breevok. Your post was great. Keep them coming.

      ReplyDelete
    3. Some people use some automation addon that's been roaming the lands these days.. very annoying

      ReplyDelete
    4. Hey Foo,

      I love your Blog!

      I think I would be ill if I had to sell glyphs for so little on my server. My hat is off to you for making a living on a well-fed market such as yours.

      My Glyph biz is a bit more streamlined simply because being a scribe annoys me LOL! I have my four 32-slot scribe bags in which I keep 20 of the highest selling glyphs minus one stack of WVIII and AVIII. I also keep the mats on hand to make tomes on the fly if they sell. That leaves me with 120 slots for Glyphs.

      I sell glyphs for 12-45g. My server is the oldest RP server and the people on here have deep pockets. I have a steady supplier of Icethorn for 10g a stack and that same supplier buys my leftover SF ink.

      This method works very well for me. I only have to do one post per cycle and when I post I undercut by 1c. I also undercut myself and I usually post 3-5 times a day depending on demand. Glyphs that expire are not that big of a deal with my 12h post limit.

      I guess if I had to run off a Goblin I would do what I have to do but the bottom of the barrel price on my server stays around 12g for the most part. I like being able to pay for a stack of herbs with one glyph LOL!

      My Scribe toon has a private guild which has 20 of every glyph in preparation for CAT. I am also not going to stockpile IotS exclusively. I am going to keep five stacks of every glyph ink just to see what happens.

      Always good to see a fresh perspective though. Take care. <[8')>

      ReplyDelete
    5. Instead of fighting over the cheap sales, why not cap your opponents high sales?

      When I find myself constantly undercut by a camper, I enable autofallback, set my fallback to about 7g and post 5 of every glyph once every 12 hours... This caps the "Camper" from listing over this price unless he buys my glyphs out first. Force him to mill, ink and craft as much as possible to restock...

      ReplyDelete
    6. Gevlon uses 7 gold threshold 20 gold fallback, I use 4 gold threshold 60 gold fallback. I also only craft glyphs that are selling for more than 15 gold each at the moment and I don't limit myself to only selling glyphs with inscription as there are other markets that are just as lucrative or moreso. When I see someone posting glyphs that are worth 25 or more gold for 5 or less than I buy them out.

      Good luck and keep us informed with how it goes!

      Be watchful for when 4.0.1 comes out. There will be charred glyphs (which is basically blizzard's way of removing glyphs they no longer want in the game) and players are going to have to buy all their glyphs except for the ones currently on their characters.

      ReplyDelete

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