08 March 2011

Darkmoon Faire redux

As part of my toe in the water for darkmoon trinkets, I made some cards, bought some decks.

I bought one of each deck for resale, and an extra Tsunami deck for personal use.  I also had 17 individual cards for sale.  I missed the 17k Tsunami card, but bought a couple of 20-22k cards instead.

This is enough exposure to the market for my 'risk appetite'.

It was my expectation that the prices of trinkets would fall to the deck price, with a flood of new decks and trinkets.  I posted these trinkets within about an hour of the faire starting (as I was on anyway).

I have sold a few indvidual cards, at market prices.  I have found that individual cards are generally more expensive than completed decks.  So far I have not sold any trinkets.

If you see 'panic' selling of trinkets, now is a good time to buy low, sell normal.  Assuming you correctly guess where normal is.  Patch 4.1 will release new trinkets that will undermine the value of darkmoon trinkets.  If you have unused volatile life, now is the time to sell it, with volatile life being the limiting factor for darkmoon trinkets.  My purchase price has risen from about 7.5g each to about 11g each.

I have seen a completed Tsunami trinket now for 16.5k on our server - much much cheaper than the 22k I paid for one, so yet again, I missed the 'bottom' of the market.

I still expect to at least recover my investment, but I suspect that the days of scribes making insane profits on cards have gone, to be replaced with merely very good profits for those adding value.
  • The 'safe' bet is to merely earn 5k/hour creating inks.  Absolutly boring & repetitive work
  • Card making, though you may need to be content merely making 50% profit above costs, and selling the card is slow
  • Turning decks into trinkets.  This is purely speculation and can be done by any toon regardless of whether you are a scribe. I expect that for astute buyers, you will make 25% profit above costs, but there will be others that will simply lose money buy doing this.  (25% profit on 17k is still a 4k flip)

My personal speculation is that prices will remain subdued for the remainder of the faire, and will rise in about 2 weeks time.  I also expect prices to crash very hard during the next darkmoon faire, maybe to 1/2 their current values.

1 comment:

  1. There are no new trinkets in 4.1 since Firelands isn't in 4.1 anymore...

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