07 June 2012

Glyph thresholds

TL: DR; If you are determined to own the market at any price; sometimes you will only be able to own it at a very low price.   Sometimes you will make more when you mix it up.

Definitions for this post:
  • threshold is that price that you are willing to sell an item (glyph) (If you are not willing to sell at your threshold - then it is too low)
  • fallback is that price you want to sell an item (glyph)

These definitions apply regardless of the tool you use to post auctions and regardless of the numbers you put into those tools.


I will cope with 'my' market going below my threshold and hence being knocked out of it.  What gets me irritable is the constant sniping where other scribes are obviously prepared to sell for less but try to maintain an overpriced market.

So: I asked the other scribes where their thresholds are : That cheapest point where they are still willing to sell glyphs.  I did not however ask them personally.  People lie or simply do not really know what their threshold really is (and I am not- I used the AH for that.  The answer was that the fiercest of the competitors was prepared at the time to log out at 18g.

Since then they have reconsidered their positions and decided that they really can do glyphs for 15g.  That makes sense to me:  Even buying my herbs I price the most expensive glyphs around 6-8g each in mats; so 15g is double that.  For farmers (both the herb and inferno ink milling variety) that place zero value on their time or byproducts their 'cost' price is even lower.

Sometimes a competitor wants some (or all) of your market.  If you wish to 'own' a market at any cost; you will need a low threshold.  If you are willing to work for your threshold for longer than your competitor is; you can own it.  Nothing personal; the competition is simply working for their own interests to get the best they can for themselves.  In trying to own the market - for them - you are the competition doing the same thing.

Anyone can have a 'sale' below their long term threshold.  Sometimes the results of that sale can make you reconsider what your threshold should be.  Sales can drive competition out of business.  In WoW where players can have many alts with different skills, we can put a business section on ice, to be brought out when prices rise back to our real thresholds.

I showed the market that 14g 50s per glyph was achievable.  In turn it showed me that people's belief was that their thresholds are actually lower.  There are several players all scrambling to post glyphs at the 14g.

Names hidden to protect the guilty


Players can set their threshold wherever they like and can afford.  They can post as often or as rarely as suits them; I have little direct influence over their behaviour.

What I can influence is setting the price in such a way that maximises my total earnings. Failing that I can ensure that the heavily fought over glyphs that will be immediately undercut are below my threshold, so I they don't consume my time collecting unsold auctions.

I made more horde glyph profit in 24 hours by crashing the prices than I had in the previous month.  The market has decided that for the majority of glyphs the price really should be 14g.  I merely showed scribe the water; they chose to drink from it.

However, if you want prices to rise, you have to let them.  Yes you will miss out on a sale and will no longer 'own' the market.  Set your threshold closer to your fallback (i.e. where you want to sell glyphs); get it right and you will in turn make more gold.

By then raising the prices I again make more profit.  Apart from when I crashed the glyphs, this too represented more profit than I had for many days.

Profit at last

I got these prices by walking away from the market for 3 days, letting others work themselves into a frenzy to defend 'their' patches and forgetting (or not being able to) re-craft replacements. 


P.s. for those that are wondering - yes I am using my blog to talk to competitors.  However this conversation applies to most realms and factions.

11 comments:

  1. good post and well made points. one thing i have noticed having been away for 5 months is that demand has fallen and the cost of materials has risen (less farmers). Hence i am seeing competitors selling at low thresholds whilst breakeven costs have risen. Cost of a glyph on my realm is now c17g - 20g.

    using your competitors own momentum to drive themselves into the ground through loss making trades is a nice strategy.

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  2. Good post. And yes its true, people are willing to list glyphs below what I think is an acceptable profit/time level. Mine being 15g. I cannot and will not justify any lower price with the current herb market. 6-9g per ink. I figure i have to sell about 50-100 glyphs a day at that price to make it worth my while and i still have 4 people undercutting below that price. So I just quit worrying about it and focus on other more proffitable ventures.

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    Replies
    1. Edit, 6-9g per glyph not ink.

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  3. Some markets don't have this option, sadly.

    Many very thriving markets simply have to deal with the fact that there are still, even after D3, too many bots competing.

    Whereas my price per ink goes up or down from time to time, theirs does not - it is always 0g. Whereas my threshold can vary wildly depending on the price of my mats, my inventory, or just my mood for the day, theirs do not. Whereas I have to log off to do things like sleep for a few hours a day, they do not.

    When you have one bot logged on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 2 others logged on for opposing 12 hour shifts, the price never really goes up because no one is ever relaxing the prices and giving them time to rise. Your only hope is finding a small window where there are few low-priced auctions and buying them out to reset the market for that one glyph.

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  4. Hi Foo
    Massterbank believes that at these prices it's way better to farm the herbs and put them on the AH instead. Both Horde & Alliance Glyph markets are now crashed on Cael. Crafting glyphs is a time consuming practice and I for one am not prepared to seriously compete for the scraps, there's better gold elsewhere. Time is money. Have you done a comparison timewise of your gold per hour?

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  5. Hiya Massterbank; Yes. I know my thresholds. I also know how to use someone's determination to own the market against them.

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  6. Gday Guys!

    Nice post. I have also noticed demand dropping substantionally on my realm. I have all but abandoned the current glyph market merely re-listing the scraps of glyphs I have left on my bank alt. The main focus has been on preparing for the inevitable profittability of Glyphmas2. Patch 5.0. There are a lot of new glyphs coming with MoP and with the surge in demand caused by everyone levelling their new monks, now is the best (and cheapest) time to pre-stock your inks. My personal target is to have 1000 of each type of ink ready to go for the patch. Do you think this is enough?

    Gday

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  7. I'm glad i'm on a low pop server. I craft and post up to 2 of each fast selling glyph listed by 2 or 3 competitors at a price of >350g and can usually make around 1k weekdays and 2-3k on weekends. My threshold is 50g and the ones I can't post over that I mail off to my glyph storage alt until the next day.

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  8. Man, the glyph market is very tough right now!

    Whilst TSM makes the cancel/create/post process a breeze once it's set up, the constant to and fro between the mailbox/ah and constant need for babysitting the market share makes me question whether it's worth the hassle at times.

    Like any good goblin, I have my interests spread across many different markets (which is ultra important in periods like this where many traditional gold markets are down because of D3 influence or just being in 'that' part of the expansion cycle). Right now, the Glyph market is generally down which means profits are not as free flowing and those market players (especially those who rely specifically on Glyphs) are probably a little more aggressive in protecting their patch than they otherwise would be.

    Bang for buck right now, the Glyph market isn't that great - at least on my realm anyway!

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  9. I dont see point in setting up low minium price for glyphs - I'm too lazy for that. My minimum is 50g, fallback 500 - I dont sell them like crazy, but making decent gold for minimum effort - I dont spend long time at mailbox, becouse some of them didnt get on ah, I dont have to restock that often (because the didnt sell), so i can wait long time for cheap herbs - recently bought like 300 stacks of heartblossom for 17g per stack - yay! - I'm set up for few months, just posting them once a day on 2 characters.

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  10. I guess im lucky to be on the smaller side of a mid/low population server then, cause both my fallback and threshold are much higher.

    Threshold: cost of material + 40g
    Fallback: 748g 36s 47c

    With very few competition and listin only twice a day i sell very few but i still make a nice profit (sometimes selling just 2 glyphs but each for 700g, usually those "not so common once") on the other side i don't have to restock that much. So compared to the small workload i consider 3k a good day. Maybe im not much of a fighter.

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